A Friend on TORUM asked:
“Is Jerome Powell gonna announce a 25 BPS rate hike or are they going to pause and what do you think of the R/R of entering the market right now?”
https://www.torum.com/post/643ce2a19f15570013a735ba
Here’s my take on the situation:
We can’t see into the future, but we can extrapolate the probability of events, based on the signals we have witnessed. The FED has printed itself into a corner. They’re damned if they do, and damned if they don’t. I am still bearish on the overall sentiment of the markets, as although they might pop-rally for a bit now and especially after a pause in rate hikes, they will surely come back down to earth. The absence of FUD tends to take the markets higher on hopium, but once that’s exhausted, gravity a.k.a. the fundamentals of the bearish reality will kick in: the financial crisis has not gone anywhere. We’re still due an acrid recession (hopefully not a depression), but a hard landing is guaranteed—it’s a matter of when, not if. More money was printed in the past 3 years than in the previous history of the US economy COMBINED (and STILL the economy crashes as soon as the money printers take a breather). There are simply too many zombie companies dragging the economy down like shoes of concrete. They must be shed and flushed out to clear the way for a genuine, organic recovery and a renaissance rally of a healthy economy. This will simply never happen without a rebalancing and a detox purge. So the slaughter is just about to begin in the S&P 500.
The EU’s economy AND industrial base have been trashed and future potential staunted. These won’t be recovering any time soon. The commercial real estate market will collapse, dragging more banks deep into the red. Critical supply chain disruptions happened and the shock is yet to be felt… as is the full impact of the interest rate hikes levied thus far. For all this FUD to dissipate, there must be a crisis to reset and cleanse the system. Propping it up with the money-printer only inflates the bubble further and delays the inevitable.
What we felt in March was just a small system tremor from a hike of some 2-3% six months prior. The current, 4.75% situation has not yet been fully appraised and factored in. So another 25 bp (what I think will happen) or 50… or 0 bp… It makes no difference. Look at the bigger picture—we’ve long since sailed past the point of no return. What we need to understand is that they’re not REDUCING the rates until at least Q2 2024 (if that). As such, we’re still in for a lot of pain. Sure, sure, they could chicken-out half way, but if they DON’T finish the job… Inflation WILL! It will resurge with a vengeance!
“People should not be afraid of their governments. Governments should be afraid of their people.”
—V for Vendetta
The bloated, overleveraged and overstimulated economy, saturated by excess and awash with corruption is already a giant bubble and they can’t possibly print their way out of this crisis. If they try and continue abusing their last vestiges of power and debasing the dollar, de-dollarisation will only accelerate and hurt the US economy SO much more, as countries dump dollars wholesale and a tsunami of filthy fiat will hit America’s shores. In such a scenario, inflation would go parabolic and they will not be able to hold back the Mother of all depressions. At this point, turning on the money printer will be like swallowing a live grenade for the FED.
Tin foil hats? Yup. I got mine. I refuse to believe that they’re this stupid. I think that all this FUD is generated by design to clear the path for global CBDCs. After all, FEDNow is launching in July… This is done on purpose to usher in the Great Reset by 2030, just as the #esG Cult of Klaus has decreed. Fiat is an untenable, obsolete solution with far too much autonomy/anonymity slippage and ML loopholes. With the advent of the blockchain, the WEF goons know that they won’t be able to hang on to the reins of power for much longer by clutching antiquated financial instruments of control.
However, an evolved dystopia is much to their liking. Just imagine being able to programme expiration dates into ‘money’ and setting limits on which goods the ‘money’ can buy and how often… Why stop at just censoring dissenting voices, when they could silence and starve them into submission?! Klaus must be salivating and foaming at the mouth at the very thought of issuing UBIs and dictating how everyone on the planet and beyond must live. They could mandate their bio-chips for the next generation of kids and other dystopian tech that’d have people subsisting like a herd of cattle in 15-minute-smart-cities, at the pleasure and whim of the lords and ladies of the WEF. They’d be living gods.
We’re not the only ones who dream in terms of “Fix the money, fix the world!” They too fervently believe this (although our definitions of the word “fix” are diametrically opposed), as CBDCs would give them more control than any tyrant has ever dreamed of, so we’re witnessing a controlled demolition/decommission of TradFi. This is the controlled collapse of fiat. Sure, it may take a decade or even longer, but it’s one-way traffic from here on out.
CBDCs will be de facto licenses to live. Once adoption is foisted upon the hapless masses, humanity can kiss all our human rights bye-bye. The only ‘rights’ in existence will be those afforded by the kings and queens of the WEF. Indeed, instead of Kumbaya, the world will be singing: “What Klaus wants… Klaus GETS!” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRWRRBX3TB0
De-dollarisation will be a challenge to the status quo and it might be the END of the WEF and corrupt, unelected ‘officials’ running the world.
Let’s live and see. In the meanwhile, remember:
Dystopia is but a CBDC nightmare away. We’d better crypto-up!
DE aluminium plant closure: https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news/german-aluminium-plant-shuts-amid-deindustrialisation-fears/
Interesting discussions flaring up on TORUM:
@gneric’s post on how to resist the fanatical fascism of the WEF: https://www.torum.com/post/643eeb0c9f15570013ad6397
@alenia’s post on liberalism:
https://www.torum.com/post/643db9ec9f15570013aa01e1
@abundant.squirrel’s post on govt. overreach in regard to driving licenses and self-driving vehicles, as well as de facto identity confiscation:
https://www.torum.com/post/643e83b79f15570013ac38b8
My post exposing the wicked ways of the banksters:
https://www.torum.com/post/6422d8774491470013c54511
My post on how the WEF exploits children for its relentless agenda of imposing its will on the world:
https://www.torum.com/post/63fbe9fbc9fe0a001375541d
My hypothesis of crisis by design:
https://www.torum.com/post/6305701479076f001396ca98
Klaus, the Great Penetrator (the sheer smug arrogance of this man is just gob-smacking):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjxJ1wPnkk4
King Charles Blessed by the WEF:
https://www.torum.com/post/63f7f258c9fe0a0013668ae1
“The Great Reset is a new initiative from the World Economic Forum and HRH the Prince of Wales to guide decision-makers on the path to a more resilient, sustainable world beyond coronavirus.
The economic fallout from COVID-19 dominates risk perceptions, but there is a unique opportunity to reshape the global economy.
Greenpeace International’s Jennifer Morgan, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath and ITUC head Sharan Burrow discuss how they perceive a reset.”
Techno-Feudalism and the End of Capitalism – Yanis Varoufakis:
https://www.torum.com/post/62e4e7fd51433b0014fcfea9
FedNOW Service coming online in July 2023: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20230315a.htm
Fed loans to banks via the ‘discount window’ at rates not seen since 2008:
https://qz.com/the-feds-discount-window-is-lending-to-banks-at-2008-le-1850237214
Arthur Hayes on playing the bag-holding dupe, a great article shared by @mythrust:
https://www.torum.com/post/6445604c9f15570013be9231
