Yesterday
Dounikos ran very well for each-way purposes and secured fifth place at 40/1. The advised e/w bet was akin to backing a winner at 7/2. Stablemate Monbeg Notorious ran even better in fourth at 50/1. The Big Dog landed the big gamble, narrowly winning at 5/2F.
Today's Race
There's a fine card of jumping at Warwick today with some classy horses lining up. Twelve horses are entered for the Class 2 Handicap Chase at 3.55 over 2m4f and they go 4/1 the field.
Today's Contenders
It's a very tricky race to call. We might look at a 2m4f handicap chase from the Cheltenham Festival last year to give us some guide. There wasn't much between Mister Whitaker (3rd), Oldgrangewood (4th), Spiritofthegames (6th) there and they reappear here on very similar terms. Louis' Vac Pouch (7th)'s handicap mark has dropped substantially after a series of poor races since.
Two For Gold is a talented jumper who won a Class 1 novice chase here last year. Disappointed in the Class 1 Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury and failed to land the odds in a lesser race at Kempton last time. Cheekpieces are now applied. Often well backed, he doesn't appeal at short odds.
Smarty Wild is up in class. He was quite impressive winning at Kempton last time and is ready to step up to this level.
Gala Ball is a very big price for his ability. Fourth in this race last year and interesting returned here. Makes the odd mistake. A positive to see Tom O'Brien take the ride. Kim Bailey trained stablemate of Two For Gold. Doesn't look a likely winner in this company but probably offers some value for a place bet.
Another Crick has 2 wins from 4 chase starts and is a bit of an unknown quantity at this level. Good jockey in Paddy Brennan. Promising. He was off for 654 days which is a worry. This is a big ask.
Le Patriote was pretty decent over hurdles. He maybe needs to improve on his chasing form a little and the mark of 146 looks pretty stiff.
Admiral's Secret has won his last three starts and continues to improve but now faces a 6lbs rise and a step up in class. He is probabably opposable in this company.
Flowery has won 3 of 5 chase starts but the handicapper has probably caught up with him.
Aso can never be ruled out either but form-wise only looks to be regressing without any leeway from the handicapper.
So... Smarty Wild is the improving horse and will be a popular bet having won at Kempton last time. Off a mark of 137 (up 7lbs) he has a fair chance of winning and at 9/2 (Betfair) could be backed.
There are however numerous other good sorts here. Mister Whitaker and Spiritofthegames look big prices. Both looked as if they failed to stay three miles last time. Mister Whitaker has won 5 of 14 chase runs for Mick Channon including at Listed and Grade 2 level. It's possible this is a prep run for Cheltenham but that would apply to many here. I've got to pick one of these out and it's the sort of race where I'd rather bet a few of them but this is the sensible bet...
Today's Tip
(To Win) Smarty Wild (9/2 Betfair, 4/1 General)
Recent Results
14 Feb: 4.20 Punchestown Dounikos (E/W) 5th/18 @ 40/1
13 Feb: 8.15 Wolverhampton (AW) Greengage 2nd/7 @ 7/2
12 Feb: 7.00 Dundalk (AW) Caesar's Comet 8th/13 @ 16/1
11 Feb: 6.30 Newcastle (AW) Fendale 1st/8 @ 7/2
10 Feb: 5.45 Wolverhampton (AW) Almost An Angel 8th/9 @ 4/1
9 Feb: 3.50 Kempton (AW) Commanche Red (E/W) 2nd/10 @ 11/1
8 Feb: 4.30 Wolverhampton (AW) London 4th/12 @ 11/2
Account (Level Stakes Profit)
Feb 2021 LSP: +19.8
All 2021 LSP: +19.8
