Yesterday
Greengage (the selection, advised 6/1) ran well and finished second at 7/2. The favourite Monsaraz had more speed at the finish and won by half a length. They pulled 4.5 lengths clear of By Jove in third. It was less competitive than I had imagined.
Today's Race
3m4f around Punchestown for a Grade B Handicap Chase called the Grand National Trail.
Today's Contenders
OK... quite a lot to get through. Gordon Elliott fields six runners here. Roaring Bull is 16/1 but the other five are all 33/1 or bigger. I read the craftily written Betfair piece which doesn't tell us much. "Don't be surprised to see Bull come Roaring back to form" is the headline. Paddy Power Chase winner last year, pulled up in this race last year. I'll pass on Roaring Bull.
Dounikos won this race in 2019 and is now on a 7lbs lower mark. Bryan Cooper takes the ride. Monbeg Notorious and General Principle (if he gets a run; unlikely) could be considered too but Dounikos is most of interest each-way.
JP O'Brien had the 1-2 in a smart hurdle race last weekend. He fields three here, all at double figure prices. There's been quite a bit of money for Thermistocles who has only had three previous outings over fences, winning a modest event at Thurles in March. Smoking Gun is attracting much less interest but he has some useful form in the book including a win over 3m1f here and has solid place claims.
I'll go through those at the head of the market in this very open race. Clear best-backed and coming in for strong support is The Big Dog. He ran well when third at Punchestown over 3m1f against some good sorts. Hasn't had many starts (0 wins from 4 chases) and this is his handicap chase debut. For me, he's just too short a price for what he's achieved so far.
Trainer Enda Bolger and jockey Mark Walsh accord respect in this sphere, the trainer especially in long distance races. Midnight Maestro looks capable of improving for this longer trip but will have to. Seemed pretty one-paced generally when with Alan King.
Nick Lost won two of his early chase starts but had nearly two years out before returning to action last month. Doesn't appeal. Screaming Colours has been very consistent but hasn't been polling good time figures for me. Se Mo Laoch might be capable in first time blinkers. He's low in the handicap and has run well here before. Discordantly has struggled since being upped 10lbs. A good sort but ultimately looks in the handicapper's grip.
The best bet I can find here is Dounikos each-way. He won this race two years ago off a mark 7lbs higher than today. While the six starts since then have been disappointing (pulled up on four occasions) these have all been in top races, initially the English and Irish Grand Nationals. Bryan Cooper has a fine record over fences here and makes a positive jockey change to recent apprentice rides. 40/1 is offered each-way (for 5 places) by many bookmakers. Alternatively, Betfair Exchange is offering 6/1 on a straight five places finish.
Midnight Maestro and Smoking Gun capture my interest for the win but Dounikos each-way is the selection.
Today's Tip
(Each-Way) Dounikos (40/1 General (5 places))
Recent Results
13 Feb: 8.15 Wolverhampton (AW) Greengage 2nd/7 @ 7/2
12 Feb: 7.00 Dundalk (AW) Caesar's Comet 8th/13 @ 16/1
11 Feb: 6.30 Newcastle (AW) Fendale 1st/8 @ 7/2
10 Feb: 5.45 Wolverhampton (AW) Almost An Angel 8th/9 @ 4/1
9 Feb: 3.50 Kempton (AW) Commanche Red (E/W) 2nd/10 @ 11/1
8 Feb: 4.30 Wolverhampton (AW) London 4th/12 @ 11/2
7 Feb: 4.10 Leopardstown Livelovelaugh (E/W) 3rd/22 @ 28/1
Account (Level Stakes Profit)
Feb 2021 LSP: +16.3
All 2021 LSP: +16.3
