This market reminds me of that scene in the movie 'The Revenant'. Particularly, the one where Leonardo DiCaprio's character is being mauled by a bear. Substitute his character with Bitcoin and it's pretty accurate, right?
Below I will take a peak at some charts to get the bigger picture at what's going on here and give my $0.02 analysis. But, first let's lay out some external concerns that could be affecting the market.
PlusToken, a Chinese Ponzi scheme.
The Chinese Ponzi scheme known as PlusToken is assumed to have sold roughly 20,000 of their 40,000 BTC supply after sending it through coin mixing services. Despite being mixed, Chainalysis was still able to track it. Why? Well, mixing services allow privacy to be achieved by mixing coins. This is similar to hiding in a crowd. This is effective in smaller amounts. However, if you make up half of the crowd, then it is far easier to be identified.
With another 20,000 Bitcoin still being sold off, this is a slight concern for some people. It's not a HUGE amount, but it's substantial enough to have some effect.
VeChain Foundation hack.
The Singapore-based VeChain Foundation’s buyback wallet was compromised by a hacker with the funds being withdrawn to a private address. The firm says it has tagged and tracked the funds and is working with cybersecurity firm Hacken to isolate the tokens’ flow to various exchanges. This hack totaled 1.1 million.
I am not sure how this will be handled. But, there is always the possibility of a conversion to Bitcoin and subsequent dump. So, more bearish news.
UpBit exchange hack.
Cryptocurrency exchange UPbit announced on November 27th that it lost almost US$50 million worth of ether (ETH) in an apparent security breach.
I am not sure what happened with the funds from this hack. It is only one month later and I have not heard much about it. There is potential of this being dumped on the market as well.
Now, to the charts!
First up on the list is our daily chart. I have drawn out trend lines since the beginning of the bear market. You can clearly see that we are still in a down-trend.
Despite the pump yesterday, we have yet to push any new highs. We continue setting lower-high's and lower-low's. Based on this chart, I have absolutely no reason to assume we are anywhere close to exiting this bear market.
Also, note the volumes. They have been rather low. This is something to pay attention to.
Like the daily, our 3-day also shows no signs of stopping this bear market. Low volumes here as well.
We can also notice the 100 MA (moving average) starting to act as a line of resistance. After falling below it, we saw 3 candles touch it and fall back down.
And the trend continues. More low volumes. More bearish outlook!
There isn't much I'm seeing here. We are falling below the 100 MA on the weekly now. That could be a potential spot to pay attention to.
Surprise, surprise! Still bearish!
Nothing much here. We saw some resistance today at the 200 MA. Other than that, it's low volumes and not much action. I am anticipating a larger move to the downside though.
That's All Folks!
My overall sentiment is still very bearish. I have not seen any indication that we are out of or that we are moving out of this bear market any time soon. However, this is crypto and I could be proved wrong a minute after I post this for all I know. The best we can do is analyze and try to make the smartest trades possible.
If we do get another large move down, the trend lines indicate resistance at the $6,000 level. However, history indicates that our support would be in the $3,500-$4,000 range.
This is a time where people can make A LOT of money trading. But, others will also lose a lot. Be smart! Never trade more than you can afford to lose. Don't get too greedy either.
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What is your opinion on the markets? Where do you think we're headed?
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