Outlier Ventures' latest analysis believes the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle “is dead,” suggesting that a mature crypto market diminishes its significance. After 2016, Bitcoin ETFs and macroeconomic variables like the 2020 post-Covid capital inflow drove price swings, according to the research.

In its latest Token Trendlines report on Tuesday, web3 accelerator Outlier Ventures said that “the four-year cycle is dead” based on bitcoin price swings after the 2024 halving.

The analysis, written by the firm's Research Lead Jasper De Maere, claims that bitcoin's halving events have had no influence. He wrote:

We think the halving last affected BTC price movement fundamentally in 2016. Since then, a developing and diverse crypto market has made miners' BTC block rewards inconsequential.

As the bitcoin industry grows, the four-year cycle no longer predicts price patterns, according to the report.

Strategically, De Maere questions if the halving still affects bitcoin prices. Since the 2020 halving came amid a moment of enormous global capital infusion post-Covid, with the U.S. alone raising its money supply (M2) by 25.3% that year, “the strong BTC and crypto market performance is coincidence,” he said.

The research also disputes the four-year cycle's validity in 2024:

The BTC ETF certification and halving are not mutually exclusive since they are demand- and supply-driven catalysts.

According to De Maere, the halving may have psychological impacts reminding bag owner of their dusty BTC wallets, but its basic impact is no longer significant. Founders and investors seeking to time the market should concentrate on macroeconomic forces rather than the four-year cycle.

Note:We are doomed!!!!