My Thoughts on Current Markets-200

By Biologist25 | Tech. Analysis | 2 Oct 2024


Over the weekend, Israel continued to do what was expected of it. But despite that, the ounce gold price came back. Gold was expected to open high especially at midnight on Sunday. It experienced some pressure but there is something like this. Now when you look at the daily chart of the ounce of gold, it reached the exact Fibonacci peak on Thursday, the 2680 - 2685 area, I had previously given these as Fibonacci targets. Right after it reached this level, we got a correction towards the moving averages again. Yesterday, there is an effort to get above it again or to cut the correction short in order to continue its trend.

However, there is something like this. I had explained that it was a bit swollen, a bit tired, it could continue up but it could make a bit of a correction, we could see a relaxation until 2613, etc. When it moves away from the moving average, it corrects, we can see a similar movement a few times. This is what I call correction of extremes. In other words, correction towards the moving averages within a medium-term strong uptrend, such weak and feeble short-term corrections. It is like taking the short-term bubble. This is like taking the gas out of the gap.

As a result, when we look at it, this rising channel between 2606 and 2685 is correcting the $130-150 movement it made from approximately 2550 to 2685, as it did in the past for 3-4 days. In other words, I am not talking about a concept or a trend ending here. Corrections can only occur when it moves away from the moving averages. Therefore, let me not go into too much detail, the ounce will continue its controlled upward movement in the 2606-2685 region. However, it may pull back briefly and cool down within this band for a few days, and balance the price with the moving average. In this sense, we should not say that the correction in the ounce of gold is expanding unless a support area such as 2606-2610 is broken. However, if the 2610-2606s are broken, they will pull the ounce down towards the moving averages. The ounce continues to rise in the 2606-2685 band. Sometimes corrections can occur due to technical extremes.

What we experienced on Friday and Monday is also a part of this process. I think a major risk here is that if a correction widening towards 2550-2516 at around 50 to 100 dollars an ounce will start, it is necessary to be controlled to the closings below 2610-2600. Unless 2610-2606 is broken, the movement towards 2685 will continue its recovery effort. It will continue to make a small bowl. Let me open the term a little more, as long as it remains above the 2550-2516 supports, 2800 dollars is the target. However, I do not expect the time frame to go to 2800 dollars to be as sharp as it has been recently, it will take a little longer. Because it is a little tired, it needs to rest by being a little horizontal or by letting it go back a little.

There was also a clear upward pricing in silver prices recently. But it has been under pressure since last Friday. Now here too, following the 31 - 26 squeeze, the Fibonacci 78.6 of this decline has passed the one that fell with 30.60s. If we want to stay in an upward discipline in silver or if we will, that is, if we have an upward trading, the falling pullback point 30.60, which coincides with our 78.6 support, should not be broken. If this movement does not fall below 30.60, if this pressure of yesterday and today does not fall, we may see another upward movement in silver below 30.60, again towards 32.5 - 33s. Here, there is a risk that especially long-sided or upward trading discipline will turn downwards below 30.5 - 30.60s.

In the next step, it may come above 30.5s again, but if 30.60s are broken, silver was going up towards 28.5 - 27s, what happened to it downwards, the person will say. I can advise that reading above 30.60 relatively upwards would be correct, 32.5 would be a short target and 33.17 would be a short target. Below 30.60, this chart will return to the triangle and probably place a sale that will be an opportunity towards 27.5 - 28. But of course, here it is necessary to manage risks such as leverage etc. correctly.

We see that Nasdaq continues to move upwards to some extent. In the last image, the medium-term trend continues. I read this chart positively, but since the bars have become stubby and the frame has shortened in the last two weeks, that is, since the margin between the highest and lowest levels has narrowed, a fatigue, a relative correction desire or a horizontal correction desire has begun to occur. Therefore, if you ask me, we should not say that Nasdaq 20377 - 20939 is a strategic target but will not retreat towards the 19700 - 19587 region in trading terms.

Here, the risk is that the correction below 19587 rather than 19700 will be effective for a bit longer, reaching 18900. As long as it stays above 19700 - 19500, the target is 20377 - 20939, and the correction deepens below 19500 towards 18900. Now this is a two-way technical analysis. If I am long as trading this, that is, if I have an upward position, I put the stop below 19500 and wait for 20377 and above. If 19500 is broken before going to 20377, I will be stopped. But I put my asset in its place at 18900.

There is a downtrend that has been touched 5 times in Bitcoin. First of all, there is no discipline in Bitcoin that is comfortable, swinging long, confirmed long, strong long unless 19026 is passed. This line will be crossed so that the 75826 -83100 movement in Bitcoin begins and / or the movement above it begins. In order for it to start, it should not be if it passes above 69028, but if it sits above it for at least two days, the condition here should be permanent in order not to fall into a bear-bull trap. The result is 65585 major intermediate resistance 69029 strong main resistance. If this region is passed, I will read this chart as strong long, targeting 75000 - 83000. Unless 65585 - 69028 is passed, the risk of breaking 62044 and falling towards 57070 should not be overlooked by those who hold long positions or take positions. Here, as trading, we fell below the 8-day moving average that carried the price above for 16 - 17 days on Monday.

Now, being below 8 here is a sign of relative weakness, but it is trying to carry the 233-day average price. But we will see how successful it will be. At this point, my advice to investors who have never taken a position should be controlled and cautious unless 65500 - 69000 is exceeded. In case 62044 is broken, it may not be 57040, but there may be a risk of 53350 in case a needle swings there. In that case, if you are saying I have a long, I am trading up, what should I do, you may need to follow 62040 with a major trailing eye. If it closes above 65585 - 69028, I will read this chart upwards. Unless this region is broken, the risk of a correction towards 57000 is on the sidelines.

When I look at the weekly chart of the dollar index, it has come to the 100 level. While wondering whether it will break down or not, we see that it has jumped above 101 again. My personal opinion is that there is a reaction in DXY, my condition for error is closing below 98.90. In other words, when I say there is a reaction in DXY, it is a prediction. You manage the prediction with stop loss or risk management, that is, with the margin of error. Therefore, you manage the risk of error in trading with stop loss. Then our if is clear, I tied the risk to stop at closing below 98.90. There may be a movement in terms of reaction under a controlled upward, falling trend in DXY for a few weeks, with the target being 102, 104. Therefore, in closing below 98 - 99, the reaction I described falls to trading default and the risk of 94.5, which is Fibonacci 78.6, begins in DXY.

Then, the reaction falls to trading default in trading below 98.90 and ends with stop management. As long as it stays above 98.90, I expect a reaction attack towards 102 and 104 in DXY, and another round of bear attacks before 104 in the next step. If it passes 104, then the reaction attack we mentioned above 98.90 will turn into a trend. In other words, there will be a permanent heating and flare-up in DXY. If you ask if you are expecting it, I am not expecting it very much, to be honest. I am expecting a reaction, but I will not wait for it to turn into a trend. Because the magnetic effect of Fibonacci 78.6 is still waiting below. There may be a reaction in DXY towards 102 and 104 by placing a stop below 98.90.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

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