My Thoughts on Current Markets-164

By Biologist25 | Tech. Analysis | 7 Aug 2024


When looking at the daily gold ounce chart, it continues its horizontal trend within the 55 to 89-day moving average, within a channel structure. Now, this place has been suppressing itself for a while in a horizontal trend or oscillating between the 2450 and 2360 band. The ounce of gold, which continues to stay above the 2360 - 2314 region, is relatively positive and controlled upward, now being above 2360 - 2314 is positive, but since it has not yet passed the top of the channel, it has not yet reached a new momentum and momentum that will switch from a horizontal trend to an upward trend. Controlled upward until it reaches this, after passing, I will delete controlled, say up and increase appetite. 2360 - 2314 is the support zone below and I strongly emphasize that it is very important. We have returned from the 2350 - 2360 band approximately 2 or 3 times. If the ounce of gold receives pressure below this, it will encounter the pressure of 2314 - 2220. In this sense, 2360 can be followed as a support and relative stop loss zone for short-term major positions.

The ounce of gold that continues to stay above these zones will continue to keep 2489 as the short-term target. Therefore, the ounce of gold that continues to stay above 2360 - 2314 will make 2489 the short-term target and 2590s the medium-term target, triggered by the passage of 2489. Therefore, what I will state for the ounce of gold right now is just a band trade. There is no trend at the moment. Momentum will come above 2489. The momentum that the investor wants towards 2590 - 2600, perhaps above, will start when 2489 is passed. Therefore, we can read the above of 2360 as relatively positive, and the below of 2360 or 2314 as they are coming to correct the ounce, the ounce will receive a bear attack.

If we look at the weekly silver chart, I mentioned last week that a complex pullback structure is forming. It came out of the narrowing triangle, got one confirmation close to the conjunction, even though it did not meet completely, and went down again from the 1.272 Fibonacci, and I was looking at it last week to see if it was looking for a complex pullback. It has been under pressure since last week. Unless 31.66 is passed or until it is passed, it may linger here for a while in the 31.66 and 26.28 - 24.50 and 31.66 band. It will come out and sell, it will come back. It will come down and the buyer will come and bounce up. This 31.66 and 26.28, even 24.50 region is a relatively flat region for following a complex pullback confirmation. The 31.66 - 26.28 band is a positionless wait region but it offers a trade opportunity. I read it above 31.66 with a target of 35.50. Unless 31.66 is exceeded, I will read the 31.66 and 26.28 - 24 region as suppressed.

There was a clear downward movement in Bitcoin. The ascending channel has been letting go since it saw the target resistance. In fact, in the big picture, this decline presented a new opportunity for those who could not catch this exit. But it is necessary to be controlled. In downward trends, leverage is not entered. It is very old and professionals know that stop loss is made for a harmful transaction. If you do not make a stop loss, you will increase your loss. That is not a smart and correct risk management. In declines to a profitable position, you increase your lot by making a purchase transaction. The other is like catching a falling knife. There is no risk management there, it is irrational. Therefore, many investors say I buy as it falls, you buy as it falls and if it is on spot, if you do not have any debt, if there is a company that you believe is valuable, it is bought when it falls in the sense of investing in that value. The 61.8 of the 69000 - 15000 drop is also the 55-day moving average, this was important, for now it rebounded from there. I think the rebound is positive but we are not in a safe playing field.

The result is that we are in the 48500 - 61700 band. This area is the 8-week moving average, Fibonacci 61.8 and 55-day moving average area. The price currently at 55000 sees 48500 - 49000, the movement that occurs here until 61700 is passed is called reaction in classical technical analysis. If it passes 61700 and closings begin above it, then a process where we can talk about 69000 - 74000 can be triggered. But if it passes above 61700, even if these targets are expected, these targets should definitely be waited with a stop loss discipline. Because if it passes above 61700, you stay focused on 69000 - 74000, suddenly a sale comes, you lock in like a rabbit with a light in your eyes in the dark. Therefore, for me, as long as the 48500 - 61700 band remains above 48500, it is a relatively positive reaction trade zone with a target of 61700, it is not a safe zone. If it passes 61700, a reasonable stop will be placed below 61700 with a target of 69000 and 74000, and an upward discipline will be formed with risk management.

This movement goes from 48500 to 61700 and if it passes, it is great, if it does not pass, it will break the 55-day moving average. With the discipline of returning to every price trend and because it is the 89-week moving average, Bitcoin will face a new bear attack until 39500. Now, if you ask me, I would say I will not play in the 48500 - 61700 band as of now. But if 48500 is broken, I will play not in 61700 but in 39500. By the way, I think declines to 39500 are also opportunities. In order for something to be an opportunity, risk management must be done within itself. Even if you are going to look at a pullback towards 39500 as a long-term opportunity, the discipline of putting a stop at a reasonable place below 39500 according to your risk understanding and the risk coefficient you can carry is essential against the risk of disruption of your expectation.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

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