The S&P is continuing its trend. So, there's no problem with the trend, but it's gotten tired. Let's pay attention to 6250 here. This is a moving average that will give us a good indication of the short-term direction. Where did 6250 come from? The 34-day moving average. Let me explain why. The 34-day average broke with Trump's tariffs, returned, and received confirmation from the moving average. It fell even more sharply. What did it do next? After breaking through 34, it remained above 34. Are we looking for a short-term trailing figure? Are we looking for a trailing figure to read upwards? You set the price at a short close at 6250, and you continue your upward reading. However, we're reading it up because it's above 6250, but we also need to remember that the technical data has weakened somewhat over the past 10 days. We're now in a trend, above the moving average. We say the trend is continuing, but the indicator below tells us you're driving me up. For example, if you've driven me positively up to this point with a 10-unit position, you should still be bullish on partial corrections down to 3-6 units due to a loss of strength and momentum, but don't extend your horns too much. Bears can strike hard, and you'll be hit. It's beneficial to keep our positions in a balanced bullish mode and maintain control during corrections to create reserve funds. As long as it stays above 6250, the S&P's trend discipline will continue.
Let's move on to the correction scenarios below and above 6250 and the target scenarios. As long as it stays above 6250, 6504 is the breakout, and 6958 is the main target. Whether 6250 is broken or not, there's a Fibonacci 1.618 waiting for us there, 6958. Whether you like this Fibonacci 1.618 or not, whether it's expensive or not, whether it's corrected or not, it awaits us. We'll see that point first, but before we get there, will they break 6250 and correct the S&P towards the 6147-5860 range? We'll monitor this. We can monitor the risk of a correction with trading discipline at 6250. I won't take any new positions here. I'll place a stop-loss position below 6250 for my current position. If it declines towards 5860-6147, especially towards 5860, I'll increase my position in the S&P. While everyone is probably very serious about the reaction to increasing positions if it falls to 5860, I'll interpret it as an opportunity.
The DXY will reach its maximum bottom within five weeks and break out of the trend. I expect the DXY to continue its decline, which began at the 114 main and 110 intermediate highs, to 101.5 without falling below 96 and/or 94.60. All the upward movements over the last three weeks, including this week, are creating resistance at the 89-month moving average. That's 99.40. Do you know what this means? The DXY is facing some pressure from 99.40. The DXY will either reach its maximum bottom within five weeks or begin a significant trend toward 101.5. Unless the 96-94.60 range is broken, I expect the DXY to continue its strong move toward 101.5. Therefore, I believe any declines in the DXY toward 96 and 94.64 ranges will be strong buying opportunities.
Gold, the most profitable instrument of the last year and a half, is experiencing weariness. The 3400-3320 region is a decision zone. I broke through 3320 with a small close, fell, and received approval. But I don't want to fall. I also have support from countries' central banks, China, and Trump. I won't fall, will I continue on my path? 3400 is a big close. I'm setting a two-day limit for this because it's weak. I want to hedge against the risk of a split by waiting for a two-day close here. However, one reason I set a two-day limit for 3400 is because they set a bull trap at the end of July. They didn't close on the second day. To avoid falling into such a trap, I'll monitor it with two days. In summary, gold continues to be weak in the 3320-3420 area. I'll use an example model.
You'll buy two contracts, right? I'll read upwards, thinking of a long contract above 3400 and a long contract above 3424. Unless 3400-3424 is broken, the 3400-3320 area is technically flat. Flat, wait and see. You can either place a stop-loss above 3400 and go short, or a stop-loss below 3320 and go long. Unless 3400-3424 is broken, I expect the daily gold chart to oscillate towards the short-term 3250-3140 range and continue. It returned and gave me two closes above 3400. I'll return and say: My short-term expectation of 3250-3140 and a medium-term decline of 2920 fell to default on the second day's close above 3400. I must say we've returned to the upside. Because technical analysis and capital markets demand flexibility. Technical analysis imposes conditions and requires discipline in the game.
Looking at the daily silver ounce chart, staying above 36.70 is generally positive with trend-riding discipline. Therefore, as silver remained above 36.70, it tested the intermediate resistance at 38.43 but failed to break through. In this sense, as long as it remained above 36.70 and continued to climb, 38.43 was seen again. It may want to repeat here. Above 40.20 could be a more ambitious target price area. If we're following an upward trading discipline towards 38.43 and/or 40.20, following the 36.70 small close, or even the small two-hour close, with a stop-loss discipline would be the correct technical discipline in my vocabulary. Above 36.70, the direction towards 38.43-40.20 still appears to be upward. However, investors should be aware of one thing here: falling peaks are coming. In other words, each peak is below the previous one. It's telling me I'm weakening. Above 36.70, read me up, but due to these falling highs, keep your position size balanced in long trades until 38.43 is broken, and your pulse on risk ratings is balanced. Because if it closes below 36.70 without breaking 38.43, and you're waiting for 40.20, the chart suddenly says, "I'll introduce you to 34.5."
If we're following Bitcoin with an upward discipline, classic technical analysis sends us two signals. If you're long, it says, "keep the 114,800 and 110,500 support zones on your radar." As long as I stay above this zone, I'm in the trend, and you can continue with an upward focus. Because the trend is continuing. Therefore, if the chart closes below 114,800, the chart weakens. Below 110,500, the short-term trend is broken. What do we do then? We're carrying a large position, aren't we? If we're profitable in our positions below 114,800, we'll say it's time to review our positions. Below 110,500, we'll say that I was reading upwards, but technically, there's a possibility of trend fatigue and deterioration. I'll have to reassess my position. 114,800 is intermediate support, 110,500 is main support. After monitoring these supports as described, 126,000 will remain intermediate, and 131,267 will remain the main targets. If you're pushing upwards towards these targets at 114,800 and 110,800, you'll need to implement a plan B to counter any pullbacks in these directions. In summary, the trend continues in Bitcoin. However, risk should be controlled at 114,800 and 110,500, and the targets of 126,000 and 131,267 can be monitored. A word of caution. If 114800-110500 breaks before reaching these levels, technical analysis won't be the only option, wondering what happened to 126000 or 131000. The necessary steps will be taken.
The 3785-3515 region in Ethereum is a support point for those riding the current trend upwards. It's also a relatively trailing stop-loss zone. A price movement above 3785-3515 will make 4828 and 5762 the main target. Not immediately. If you're asking whether you expect an upward movement in Ethereum towards 5762, I wouldn't expect a parabolic move. They will correct this point. But I don't know if it will break through 4828 or not. As long as 3785 and 3515 remain above 4828 and 5762 will remain the medium-term target. My personal opinion is that they will continue to trade above this chart before reaching 5762. At 3785 and/or 3515, technical disciplines like trend protection, profit-taking, and stop-loss may need to be reviewed. Do you know what happens if 3785 and/or 3515 are broken? The reality of the world is manifesting itself. Every price returns to its trend. It's like every living thing will taste death. Ethereum's welcome closes below 3515 range between 3000 and 2740. Even if it falls to 3000 and 2740, a long-term Ethereum trend won't be disrupted, but short-term investors will be shaken up significantly.
The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.
