I think America will have a somewhat volatile year. I think the movie will have 3 scenes. The curtain opening is turbulent, volatile, we experience back and forth, then strong upwards, then I think the closing of 2025 may be a bit troublesome. I am clear about the first quarter and the middle of the year. We will start very volatile, then America will go up strongly, then we will decide whether the end of the year will end badly or will end turbulently again depending on the upward trend it had when it was strong. But I think 2025 seems stressful for America after a long break for now.
Since we have reached the exit channel without exceeding 6200 in the S&P 500, first of all, I was thinking that there may be corrections from the top of the channel to the inside, with the logic that the first few months in America will be volatile after wearing a Trump shirt. We have fallen below the 8-week moving average. Now when you look at it in general, there will be volatility for a few months. I think that we are not in a time cycle where we can price above 6200-6220 in S&P 500, and the decline towards 5830-5633 below will be an opportunity for the rally that will come after these volatile months. I do not expect America to exceed 6200-6220 for a while, not for a long time, but for 4-5 weeks. I think that the pullback towards 5830-5633 will be a period where they will have to read their investments and this opportunity through their own risk filters. I think that all the pullbacks towards 5830 and 5633 in the volatility that will be experienced with those statements that he may make after wearing a Trump shirt in the American S&P stock exchange, will be an opportunity in my dictionary for the targets of 6220 and 6954, which will start from there, in my opinion, with a positive tempo.
Qualcomm is sitting on Fibonacci 61.8. There may be a risk of Fibonacci 78.6 here, but 61.8 or 78.6 will be the correction process of the sharp rise. Especially all the pullbacks towards the 152 and 131 dollar region, I had explained that Qualcomm is a chart that can be read with investment discipline, not trading. It remains under pressure, in other words, it is trying to hold on above 61.8 in its movement from 104 dollars to 230 dollars. At the same time, it has made full contact with the 89-week moving average from below. Therefore, there is a squeeze here with Fibonacci 61.8 in the 89-week moving average region and under the downtrend. In this sense, $152 is an intermediate support on the Qualcomm chart, $131 is a very strong support. In other words, if there is no extreme risk on the fundamental side for this stock, this chart will gain momentum above 169.5. It will get rid of the downtrend, the movement may accelerate. The movement will quickly make 182 in the short above, then 230 and here, the Fibonacci I threw at the bottom of 149 - 150, which is the reverse Fibonacci, 61.8 is 198, 78.6 is 212. If this chart can get rid of 169.5, it can contain a premium potential of close to 30%, which can target $198 and $212 in a series.
Investors who want to join the trend without waiting should know this; If 169.5 is passed, it can be considered as an upward option. Until 169.5 passes upward, it corrects this graphic exit in a way that will contain the risk of 152 and 131 in the pocket in terms of risk analysis. For the next exit, Qualcomm will also trigger a series of 198 - 212 dollars movement above 169. Those who do not want to carry can keep the graphic in waiting mode unless 169.5 is passed. Before starting the huge trend, it tilted the graphic to the right for a long time, that is, for a period of close to 5 - 6 months. After Mac and Trigger also suppressed the price below the 89 and 55-week moving averages, especially the 55-week moving average, the lower indicator turned to Buy and gained momentum with the passing of the moving averages. Therefore, above 169.5 will equal a strong upward signal. The similarities in the lower indicators clearly show that it needs a little more time in terms of time. However, it also indicates to us that there is a preparation and that a bottom work is ongoing.
I will read the pullbacks for ounce gold in 2025 as an opportunity. I will not remain a bull unless 2790 is passed. I will read it as a band trader unless 2790 is passed. I will read it as an opportunity as it falls below 2530. In Bitcoin, 102000 - 106000 is a very valuable resistance, the fibonacci 1.618 of the 69000 - 15000 decline is 102000. I think the Trump trade story got tired for a while. Trump said he would make a statement after he came. He created a surprise, a mystery by saying he would say very important things. But despite that, Bitcoin is taking a reflex towards correction. Of course, we should not ignore the American 10-year and DXY factor here. Bitcoin has a problem from the fundamental side. As long as 102000 - 106000 is not passed in Bitcoin, I think Bitcoin can offer better opportunities. I am openly saying that it will provide better opportunities unless 102000 - 106000 is exceeded, it means that it will remain under some pressure. But it did not go down, for example, it did not go down to 83500, it passed 102000 - 106000, then the game plan should be turned up.
The best investment in the world is stock investment, long-term value investment. But let's not forget that whether you are a fundamental investor, a value investor, or a trader, the main thing is the price and when some dynamics are disrupted, it is necessary to ease up or to act with a defensive impulse to increase lots from below, which I think investors have already experienced in 2024 and should be taken into consideration in 2025. When the market goes up, investors refrain from selling. When it goes up, people cannot sell. Because while thinking how nice it is going, they lose it very quickly. One of the most comfortable trading methods in the world is to buy gradually and sell gradually. In other words, if you cannot follow the trail, if you cannot be disciplined in the trend, buying gradually and selling gradually is. Therefore, I am optimistic about 2025 unless there is an extreme development. However, I think it would be right to take profits when it goes up, a difficult year awaits us.
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