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29 Apr 2026 3 minute read 0 comments Heath Muchena
A pause on rates reveals less about control, and more about constraint The Federal Reserve has chosen to wait. Interest rates remain on hold, officials signal patience, and the public message is one of balance. Inflation has cooled from its peak, the...
27 Apr 2026 2 minute read 0 comments Perfectionist25
Global stock markets, which experienced a rollercoaster ride in the early days of the war with Iran that began on February 28, are now approaching developments more calmly. Stock markets have experienced a rapid recovery since the beginning of April,...
25 Apr 2026 3 minute read 0 comments Heath Muchena
Inflation, debt, and geopolitics are converging into a test policymakers may not fully control The change is subtle, but increasingly visible. For years, markets operated on a core assumption. The Federal Reserve could guide the economic cycle with a...
6 Apr 2026 6 minute read 0 comments Perfectionist25
Last week's main macro story was the fierce clash between geopolitical supply shocks and risk appetite. The war between the US and Iran sent crude oil prices soaring to $112 a barrel, creating significant market volatility. Fears of a prolonged confl...
1 Apr 2026 4 minute read 1 comment Perfectionist25
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is perhaps for the first time in its history fighting such a serious battle for independence. Tensions between central banks and politicians always exist because the nature of politics requires producing short-term result...
19 Mar 2026 2 minute read 0 comments CryptoTrendSeer
Powell held rates and revised inflation higher. The dot plot hides a growing divide. Here's what actually matters for crypto right now. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at its March 18 meeting — second consecutive hold, federal funds rate still...
10 Mar 2026 8 minute read 0 comments Perfectionist25
Last week's macroeconomic agenda was shaped by the sharp tension between growth and inflation. US and Israeli attacks on the Iranian mullah regime and the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz rapidly pushed oil prices higher. Brent crude finishe...
5 Mar 2026 3 minute read 0 comments Perfectionist25
According to the US Treasury's "Federal Financial Conditions" report, there is a significant problem. A detailed look at the social security deficits and actuarial projections reveals that the burden on the elderly is increasing in both retirement an...
26 Feb 2026 6 minute read 0 comments Perfectionist25
The Supreme Court told Trump to "stop," but Trump found new tariffs within 24 hours. Markets relaxed, then saw three different tariff regimes. GDP plummeted to 1.4%, inflation remained at 3.0%, and the Fed is in a trap. Junk bond spreads at 2.88%, su...
12 Feb 2026 3 minute read 1 comment CryptoTrendSeer
A March rate cut could push the dollar down 10% by year-end. But January showed Bitcoin isn't following the debasement script anymore. Here's why. There's a narrative in crypto that goes something like this: when the dollar weakens, Bitcoin rises. I...
