Kevin Warsh began his first press conference with a moderate tone, but shifted to a hawkish one towards the end. This speech was interpreted as hawkish and corporately aggressive by both financial media and institutional macro analysts. Prior to the meeting, the market had expectations that, given his appointment by Trump, he might succumb to pressure and shift to a dovish tone, or that AI would justify interest rate cuts by increasing efficiency. However, Warsh completely dashed these expectations in his first meeting by emphasizing independence and the fight against inflation.

1. Why Was it Considered "Hawkish"? The Abandonment of "Forward Guidance": This is the most emphasized point by analysts. Completely removing signals about the future interest rate path essentially means "leaving the market in the dark." Social media comments such as "The game of predicting the Fed is over, we'll be completely obsessed with real-time data" are prevalent. This was interpreted as a hawkish move because it increased the uncertainty premium.

Interest Rate Hike Back on the Table: The message that there will be no compromise until the 2% target is reached, and the upward revision of the inflation forecast (for the end of 2026) from 2.7% to 3.6%, immediately made an interest rate hike in September the main scenario. The rise in 2-year bond yields also shows how hawkish the market initially perceived this.

Assessment of Financial Conditions: The statement, "Policy is restrictive for the housing market but not for financial markets," was interpreted as a clear message to Wall Street: "I am not bound by the enthusiasm of the stock markets; I will continue to tighten financial conditions if necessary."

2. What Do Social Media and Corporate Analysts Say?

Corporate Front (J.P. Morgan, BlackRock, BBH): Analysts note that Warsh has initiated a period of "Strategic Ambiguity" in the Fed's communication strategy. The radical shortening of the policy statement and the revision of the "dot plot" system are being interpreted by institutions as "the end of the overly transparent and dovish Fed of the Powell era."

X (Twitter) and Financial Communities: The general perception on social media is that Warsh is exhibiting a much tougher, more direct, and "volatility-disregarding" leadership style compared to Powell. Comments such as "Warsh hit the market like a wall," and "AI efficiency is just a story, he's a known inflation hawk" are prevalent.

In short, Warsh started as an aggressive hawk intent on completely transforming the Fed and rewriting the rules. Markets, and especially the Nasdaq, have lost their comfort zone of "predictability" for now. From now on, every major macroeconomic data point will create twice as much volatility as usual.