Activity for whales (balance > 1,000 BTC) and small investors (balance < 1 BTC) differs depending on market conditions. For example, in March 2020 and May 2021, whales replenished their stocks after a significant correction. At the same time, small fry continued to dispose of their coins, fearing that the index was off the charts. Now the picture is reversed: whales are locking in their annual profit, while the small fry are counting on a repeat of last year's winter rally.
On the chart above, blue dots mark prices at which whales reduced their holdings and small fry bought Bitcoin. This trend has been on the rise for the last month and a half and may be exacerbated by central banks' reaction to rising inflation.
In the US, consumer prices rose by 6.8%, while manufacturer selling prices jumped 9.6%. This forced the Fed to cut its monetary stimulus programme in half from $120 billion to $60 billion. For next year, committee members envisage three federal funds rate hikes. Loans will become more expensive, and the dollar will have a reason to strengthen. This will reduce the appetite for risk and lead to large capital outflows. The Bitcoin sell-off has already led to an increase in the turnover of stablecoins. A similar situation was recorded in May of this year.
However, the CEO of Galaxy Digital Holdings, Micheal Novogratz, believes that BTC will not fall below $42,000 due to the fact that cryptocurrencies are only at the beginning of their introduction into the modern financial system.
The same opinion is held by MicroStrategy (the largest public holder of Bitcoin), which continues to increase its holding. Last week, the company bought another 1434 BTC, increasing its reserves to 122,478 BTC. Its head Michael Saylor is one of Bitcoin's most ardent fans, calling the cryptocurrency the best way to save money in the 21st century. In its time, MicroStrategy has spent $3.7 billion on purchases, while the current value of the portfolio stands at $5.8 billion.
The StormGain Analytical Group
(platform for trading, exchanging and storing cryptocurrency)
