State of the Market (07/23/23)

By Todd Mei PhD | State of the Market | 23 Jul 2023

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How To Read The Report

Sentiment Scores use ChatGPT as part of the AI tech stack to rate stocks or sectors.

  • Scores range from 1 (worst) to 7 (best).
  • These are short term scores (ideally updated daily)
  • A 3.5 is a minimum score for a long strategy.


The Macro Situation

“We don’t need no stinkin’ dollars!”

The economy is preparing for Wednesday’s interest rate policy decision, where there is little doubt about the Fed’s course – i.e. a 25bps increase, to bring the total target rate to 525-550. Jobless claims have dropped (228,000) to a 2-month low, as the labor market remains immovable.

With easing inflation and a strong labor market, economists are warming up to the idea of there being no recession, though risks still remain (e.g. less government spending, tighter credit requirements, liquidity constraints). Goldman Sachs’ updated prediction is a 20% chance of recession.

Activity in certain sectors should dip accordingly, as higher rates put further constraints on liquidity.

  • The housing market is at its slowest pace since June 2009 (oh, the Great Recession!).
  • Mid- to long-term bonds will suffer until a possible final 25bps increase is worked out before the year’s end.

The effect on the bonds market has meant liquidity has tightened, and therefore the US dollar has decreased in value significantly. Gold remains up despite dipping at the end of the week, likely in anticipation of Wednesday’s rate increase.


Hence, next week might see a slight bump in the value of the dollar.

On the up end, oil is trending despite interest rates, which typically put a dampener on consumer traveling. The strength of the US economy plus a recent drop in US stockpiles has seen the crude oil sector gain momentum.

- Todd Mei, PhD and Sebastian Purcell, PhD

AI Sentiment Report

What follows are the ratings of our AI sentiment strategy as applied to various sectors--or individual stocks. They're best for next day analysis, but do given an indication over the coming week.


-The Research Team:

Dom Viera, Samantha Russell, Nicole Zinuhova, Aiza Malik

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Todd Mei PhD
Todd Mei PhD

Todd is a former Associate Professor of Philosophy with over 16 years of research experience in the philosophy of work and economics. He is currently the lead researcher and writer for the Web3 consultancy group, 1.2 Labs.

State of the Market
State of the Market

Weekly reports on the state of the macroeconomy, stocks, and crypto compiled by the 1.2 Labs Research team.

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