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The Macro Situation
The strength of the tech sphere, higher jobless claims, and talk of an S&P bull run may very well be a pyrrhic victory. The flipside of the successful debt ceiling negotiation has pundits worried about how much debt issuance will drain liquidity from the financial system. This is because the US Treasury will need to sell T-bills, which in turn will decrease the reserves of depository banks.
Ray Dalio is anticipating a “big-cycle debt crisis” involving too much debt and a shortage of buyers. He tends to be early in his calls.
Most expect a pause for the next Fed Meeting at present.
In the meanwhile, the dollar has begun to weaken, dropping from 104 to 103. Precious metals are recovering.
Long-term bonds are mostly trending upward on the increase in jobless claims and the expectation of an interest rate pause. However, bonds might suffer from the aforementioned liquidity constraints from the debt ceiling negotiation.
Macro-Dependent Tickers
- Long-term US Bonds: TLT, IEF, IEI
- Metals: GLD, SLV
Stock Watch
The macroeconomic situation is boosting markets. Liquidity constraints and the Fed course of interest rates remain the immediate factors that can change trading confidence.
The Lithium sector is following the AI trend as advancing technology requires more of the precious metal, or what Musk once called “the new oil”.
Despite concerns about its being overvalued, Tesla continues to climb; this time on news of its cybertruck.
Stock Tickers to follow:
AI:
- Microsoft (MSFT)
- Alphabet (GOOG)
- Meta (META)
- Amazon (AMZN)
- Nvidia (NVDA)
- Micron Technologies (MU)
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Lithium
- Global X Lithium & Battery Tech (LIT)
- Global X ACDC (ACDC)
Green:
- Tesla (TSLA)
Crypto Watch
The SEC’s lawsuits are dominating headlines and crypto prices. Altcoins are down significantly more than BTC and ETH, continuing the prevailing trend of this cycle.
The reason ADA, SOL, and MATIC dumped recently stems from the fact that they were all identified as securities by the SEC in their latest lawsuit, and they ran proof of stake consensus systems. Large validators, such as Jump Street, decided exit their validation plan and just sold their coins. Hence the decline.
XRP remains in limbo, though it appears many are optimistic about a favorable court ruling.
Crypto Narratives:
- Bank Safety: BTC
- Bitcoin Lackeys: STX
- DeFi Goliaths: ETH, ARB, AVAX
- “AI” Narrative: FET, RLC, GAI, RNDR
-Todd Mei, PhD and Sebastian Purcell, PhD
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This newsletter was created by The Art of the Bubble/1.2 Labs and is provided for educational and entertainment purposes only. You should expect no financial returns one way or another based on the statements contained herein.Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC is the firm that distributes The Art of The Bubble products. The firm does not provide individually tailored investment advice and does not take a subscriber’s or anyone’s personal circumstances into consideration when discussing investments; nor is Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC registered as an investment adviser or broker-dealer in any jurisdiction.
