Crypto enters 2026 with more unanswered questions than clear trends. Tariff risks are resurfacing and Fed policy remains uncertain, but new regulation and ETFs may unlock new demand. Will the market follow its familiar four-year rhythm or see the formation of a new cycle ?
5 things to look for in 2026
● Tariff risk returns : Trump’s 2025 tariffs could be ruled illegal, potentially triggering another wave of market volatility.
● Macro still matters :
Even with only one Fed rate cut currently expected, US inflation and the labor market will remain one of key drivers for crypto.
● Fed leadership change : Jerome Powell’s term ends mid-2026, and a new chair could be more open to rate cuts.
● Regulation & access : The Clarity Act and 100+ pending crypto ETF applications could meaningfully reshape market structure and demand.
● DATs : Digital asset treasuries helped drive the latest rally, but activity has slowed — whether they resume buying or turn into sellers could define the market’s next move.
Top performers of 2025 :
● RWA quietly became DeFi’s standout performer, with the sector’s total value locked surging by roughly 180% in 2025.
● Hyperliquid and Pump.fun became the best token-based revenue-generating dApps in 2025, registering more than $600 million in revenue.
● Privacy coins like Zcash, Monero, and Dash became one of the best-performing categories in 2025, registering an over 250% combined increase.
Are 4-year crypto cycles still alive ?
Every 4 years, the same claim comes back : the 4-year cycle is over. It typically refers to Bitcoin’s post-halving cycle, but there’s more to it. For more than a decade, Bitcoin’s post-halving cycle, the business cycle, and liquidity cycles moved largely in sync. However, they’ve been recently diverging, at least more visibly.
Bitcoin hitting an ATH in early October still fits the classic post-halving cycle (red line), implying a longer and deeper bear market ahead. But if Bitcoin pushes to new highs in 2026, it would signal that the old playbook may no longer apply. In that case, the cycle may not be gone, just different, with global liquidity and business cycles becoming far more important to watch.
Separate Investing and Trading Capital
Blurring long-term holdings with short-term trades increases emotional pressure. Keeping them separate helps avoid panic decisions and makes performance easier to evaluate. Many traders improve results simply by knowing which capital is meant to be touched — and which isn’t.
