David Buffalo newsletter had a busy week in September 2026 that was part of a busy month. When David Buffalo newsletter saw the image of a burning Moscow refinery, the result of another effective Ukrainian drone attack. Their first concern was of hypersonic nuclear missiles flying over the EU and even in the USA, as we have armed NATO countries to perform this insanity. Then David Buffalo newsletter saw this post on X, regarding the complete lack of usable crude oil from J.P. Morgan. This of course is fear porn from May, but when combined with strikes on russian refineries and Saudi processing facilities, it gives the brokerage firms the change to rattle retail and institutional traders who might be sitting on the sidelines. The crisis in diesel fuel is much more critical, as you can see from some research, and that is detailed in some recent OilPrice article.
Add this to the combined effects of the Iran/US conflict, and the possibility of mobilization of China for perhaps a run at Taiwan as the year ends based on what David Buffalo newsletter have read about China’s version of NDAA just passed in late August, and you would think the markets would really go nuts. Then when you see the political bilge from the UK hitting your screen, you think the world is about to end. Throw on top of that the noise about “killer AI (SI)” and hyper-scaling debt explosion, you would think the markets would burn down.
But what did we see in NASDAQ volatility in September 2026 ?
According to Buffalo newsletter The CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index (VXN)—the Nasdaq-100 equivalent of the VIX—closed at 19.29 on Friday, September 18, 2026. It was practically lifeless. One does not get excited about it until it exceeds 30. For that index and its futures, it is just another sunny day at the park.
What bothers us the most is that volume dearth has extended beyond Labor Day, and that even with all the global tumult, things are rather quiet. As long as the free or nearly free money (now a bit less free now that rates at the short end of the Treasury market are rising, as long as the printers at the Treasury are running, markets will accept them and will continue higher, regardless of what earnings look like. Stocks for the individual and institutional investor are still the only game in town.
What About M2 Growth, GDP Growth, and Inflation ?
According to the Federal Reserve, the latest official U.S. M2 (seasonally adjusted, M2SL) through July 2026 is $23,218.0 billion. The 12-month growth rate ending July 2026 is 5.41%. Year-to-date 2026 growth (December 2025 to July 2026) is 3.86%, which annualizes to roughly 6.7%. The combined period from mid-2025 through July 2026 shows similar mid-single-digit annualized growth. If you have ever followed David Buffalo newsletter on X, their own personal inflation number is around 7% based on the bills. That seems to be consistent with what we see in M2. (if you want to see the calculations, using the Fed’s own data, look here.)
The operative question is, can the US economy, given its propensity to spend money at insane levels, outgrow this growth in M2 and inflation ?
Underneath that question, is the US government spending at Covid-pandemic-era levels ? I will quote you Grok’s answer below, but Grok’s answer does not fully explain what is happening in the macro-world of interest rates and Federal government policy.
In conclusion, No. Congress is not spending at COVID-19 pandemic-era levels when measured as a share of the economy or in terms of emergency supplemental appropriations. Nominal dollar totals are now higher than the 2020–2021 peaks, which is expected after several years of inflation, economic growth, population aging, and sharply higher interest costs on the national debt.Key comparisons (fiscal years)Fiscal year runs October 1–September 30.
