SOLANA: FTX liquidation - possible outcomes

By rumjus | Rumjus Crypto Discussions | 25 Sep 2023


Today I thought I'd pen my thoughts on the doomsday sayings predicting Solana falling to zero because FTX will dump their billion dollar Solana holdings once they are able, thus flooding the market with a surplus of Solana leading to the inevitable collapse, at least in the short term.

Solana has been very good to me over the past. It nearly doubled in value and was a decent investment. I believe it still is, and I will reason out why I think so below.

Once allowed by the liquidators, expecting FTX to dump all the holdings at once is not a realistic expectation. Why not? Wouldn't the investors really want their money and get out? They most likely want their money, yes. But they are investors and the basic mistake that most doomsday sayers make is that they don't allow for the other party having a bit of brains. What would be the point of dumping all the Solana tokens at once, when the price would fall and their return would be increasingly less? These are savvy investors we are talking about and expecting them to get less for their 50 million Solana (yes you read that right) holding than they could would be simplistic.

On the other end, we find the hopefuls, who are buying heavily into Solana everytime the price dips, "knowing" that FTX will not liquidate any significant amount of holdings at all. So in this Eden garden scenario, FTX holds on to its Solana portfolio, for whatever reason, be it that the courts don't allow it to sell, or that its creditors are happy to retain Solana, and therefore Solana keeps increasing in price, to the glorious pleasure of the hopeful souls.

In the middle of these to realms fall the majority of us. And this is the most realistic scenario, that which, if allowed, FTX liquidates its holdings slowly, pacing it in such a manner that the market is not overly affected. However, the market will go down ones there is an inkling that this is about to happen. Galaxy Digital has certainly more clout than FTX (as far as reputation is concerned) and there is money to be made, if we can figure out what their strategy will be. My whale watching advice will bear fruit.

I personally do buy Solana still when it dips, and have found it quite reliable in the past. However, as always, this is not a financial advice and you should always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

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rumjus
rumjus

Experienced trader


Rumjus Crypto Discussions
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