• Market sentiment remains between fearful and neutral. However, statistical data continue to show a high degree of acceptance by many.
• Before starting a new week, it is important that you know what has happened within the market in relation to perception and economy.

Decisive Period

Over the past week, the price of Bitcoin has seen a slight decline of 1.1% amidst predominantly rangebound trading.

Unfortunately, bitcoin has been unable to maintain any upward price momentum, resulting in subdued short-term sentiment.

It seems that bitcoin may be influenced by the weakness observed in other risk markets, especially equities.

SP500 experienced a 1.2% decrease while the Nasdaq Composite declined by 2.0%. Gold also faced a setback, falling 1.2% as real yields rose.

Oil emerged as the standout winner of the week with an impressive 3.9% increase, thanks to producers extending production cuts.

Conversely, bonds experienced a decline, with investment grade corporate #bonds down 1.1%, high-yield corporate bonds down 0.4%, and long-term US Treasuries down 2.4%.

In 2023, the amount of energy spent in Bitcoin mining has been on the rise as mining companies increased their capacity and share of hash rate with the installation of new ASICs and by preparing for the halving in April 2024.

Bitcoin's energy value has shown a strong correlation with Bitcoin’s spot price and this suggests that the theory is at least somewhat valid. However, there are some caveats to the theory.

Bitcoin’s spot liquidity data on Binance indicates that buyers are looking at the $24,600 level for support.

However, the bullish momentum appears to be fading as most traders are crowding around the yearly low levels and hoping that these hold.

The liquidation levels of futures orders from CoinGlass show that buyers are expecting downside to $24,600, with smaller liquidations extending toward $23,000.

Notably, the price range between $25,000 and $25,500 has the most leveraged orders in significantly high volumes, making them hot targets for traders.

Should the price drop down to the $23,000 level, the buyer’s conviction will be tested. A drop below $23,000 would target the $21,451 and $19,549 levels from 2022.

Profitability and Scarcity

🐻 With crypto markets continuing their unpredictability, we saw a huge increase in bearish trends from the crowd here in September.

Historically, this has been good for patient traders. The probability of price jumps increases after FUD becomes majority.

As Bitcoin continues to fluctuate around $26,000, an interesting trend is emerging. Around 527,000 new BTC addresses are being created daily, representing a new annual record!

For those unfamiliar, this suggests that more people are showing interest in BTC, even though its price has suffered recent drops.

For long-term investors, this growth in participation can be seen as a positive sign of sustained interest and confidence in the network.

Bitcoin’s Lightning Network usage is now down -84% since last year, and it’s capacity has plummeted by 15% over the last 3 months.

The Lightning Network can now only handle 5,000 $BTC, which is 0.00023% of Bitcoin’s supply. Maxis are dead silent about this.

Absolute Narrative

242 days left until the 4th halving of Bitcoin monetary issuance. Adding 242 days to the current date, it should occur on Tuesday, May 7, 2024 🎯.

Note: the end date is difficult to predict with certainty, but it gives us a relevant idea ⏱️.

Long-term investor bid profitability (LTH) says a lot about cyclical entry and exit zones 👇.

🔵 Significant latent profit: Period conducive to sales 🔴 Significant latent loss: good time to buy.

Medium-term outlook favors BTC and cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin's expected decline in mid-September paves the way for a promising October. We are approaching the bottom, but volatility persists.

The risk signal consolidates near high-risk levels and altcoins struggle against BTC. The small-cap vs. large-cap spread suggests altcoin instability, likely without an extended alt season.

Bitcoin volatility has decreased, historically signaling significant changes in the market🧐.

The analysis maintains a bearish outlook, citing September's historic crypto performance challenges.

The years leading up to the halving saw around 50% growth, suggesting a potential slowdown📉.

Altcoins To Watch

MKR supply on exchanges dropped nearly 13% during the past weekend. However, based on data from crypto intelligence tracker #Santiment, there has been a consistent increase in MKR supply on centralized exchanges this week.

MKR supply increased from 96,565 to 97,119 between September 4 and early on Friday. Typically, an increase in supply of the token fuels a bearish narrative for its price as larger volume of the asset is available for sale on centralized exchanges.

Shibarium’s transaction volume exceeded 1.5 million, marking a milestone in the Layer 2 chain’s user activity, based on data from Shibariumscan.

The scaling solution is key to SHIB ecosystem token holders, for bridging Ethereum, BONE, and other tokens to Shiba Inu’s Layer 2 chain.

Despite the rising transaction activity on Shiba Inu’s scaling solution, the update failed to fuel a recovery in SHIB price.

The burn rate of SHIB tokens picked up pace with nearly 80% increase overnight, 61.96 million Shiba Inu tokens were burned, early on Saturday.

Last article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. Remember that all information presented here is a combination of third party data added to our personal opinion.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Rubikkav.

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