RekTimes Weekly Markets
22 May 2022: Last week, we discussed where to look for a potential bottom - for mostly all projects, this would be at the 200 moving average. The market has seemingly stalled over the past week, with minor moves in both directions but no clear trend.
This week, we will add in the Total Altcoin Market MINUS Bitcoin/Ethereum to reiterate that true alts & small caps may be in for more selling. The global economy is still slowing towards recession and with the US Federal Reserve raising rates, stocks have faced extreme volatility as the S&P 500 index slips closer to a full on bear market.
Crypto-Economy & Markets
The Fear & Greed index has actually bounced a bit with the complete stop in market movement recently, up 4 points to 14.
Market sentiment has remained in a status of ' Extreme Fear'.
The full Fear & Greed Index chart is shown below:
The Total Crypto Market remains down 58% since the November 2021 peak, a loss of $1.72 trillion overall. Since the Total Crypto Market lost its hold on the 50 MA (moving average), it has sold off seven consecutive weeks.
The 200 MA is approximately down another $419 billion (~33% loss) from current levels.
The Crypto Total Market Cap is shown below:
Likewise, we have Bitcoin. Since its all time high in November 2021, Bitcoin has fallen 56% down under $30,000 per BTC. This does mean that Bitcoin has actually outperformed the market with smaller losses versus altcoins.
Bitcoin is roughly 27% above its 200 MA, which we will provide some additional thoughts on in the Market Analysis section at the end of this newsletter.
The Bitcoin/USD Weekly chart is shown below:
Total Altcoin Market (excludes Bitcoin)
The Total Altcoin Market has taken a loss of 58% since November 2021, shedding an unbelievable $992 billion off its market cap. The Total market has another 41% to go before it reaches its 200 MA, and unlike Bitcoin - it hasn't really gotten close yet.
Ethereum has held up relatively well in the market, but no matter how much hype builds before the merge, market momentum still indicates a deeper sell-off into summer 2022. This would remain true even with some upside rallies which appear to be a possibility soon.
The Total Altcoin Market Cap is shown below:
The Ethereum/USD Weekly Chart is shown below:
True Total Altcoin Market (excludes Bitcoin, Ethereum)
This week we are including the True Total Altcoin Market to demonstrate the losses than non Bitcoin & Ethereum assets are on the verge of taking.
The True Total Altcoin Market is down 60% from its all time high in November 2021, a loss of $685 billion in six months. Altcoins still have another 39% to go before the 200 MA should that be the bottom as we are projecting.
This would be another loss of $180 billion from a market cap that is currently already under $500 billion.
The True Total Altcoin Market Cap is shown below:
Based on the setup that the market is showing, should the 200 MA be the bottom of this sell-off, Bitcoin looks poised to have the most short to medium term upside. Keep in mind - it can take weeks and weeks to get there. There is a high probability of relief rallies in the coming weeks. Bear this in mind for long term trades.
With Bitcoin having the least room to fall versus the altcoin market, there is a chance that Bitcoin leads the Total Crypto Market recovery and becomes a temporary safe haven for altcoin sellers. Of course, this is speculative and is by no means a guarantee.
There is also The Merge for Ethereum to consider. This is now being put out there to be highly likely in August 2022. Should that be the case, it is a high risk - high reward scenario for Ethereum that has to be considered for medium term trading. Keep in mind that both Bitcoin & Ethereum are already down nearly 60% from all time highs and this still serves as a good long term entry point for investors.
Key Takeaway - Watch for a relief rally in the coming days to weeks but bear in mind that there could be extended, long term selling due to global economic stressors.
Please keep in mind this is not financial advice, but merely observations and free analysis. We cannot predict the future, but are confident in the long term technicals & fundamentals.
Coming RekTimes Articles:
- Article on Bitcoin Adoption (El Salvador) - THIS WEEK
- RekTimes Weekly Markets 1.35
Long Term Projects
- Investigation on MOBI
- Proposal Report on Ampleforth - COMPLETE
- Q2 Summary Report
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