Intuitive Investing — Smart or Not?

Intuitive Investing — Smart or Not?

By Rasmi Mantilla | Ras Mantilla | 18 Sep 2021


Is it time to sell?

It’s the question that every investor ponders at one point or another.

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Either you’re up or your down on your initial, but you must decide, and hopefully, that decision is based on a pre-established plan. It’s so important.

If I had to grade my exit strategy execution the past year, I would give myself a 60%.

In this article, I want to speak to intuitive decision-making in crypto investing and shed some light on my own experience.

Some Mistakes

When the crypto market started hitting all-time highs around November — December 2020, I was on cloud nine and rarely glanced at my exit strategy which is:

Mistake 1

Why did I not follow my strategy?

Because when these assets started hitting price discovery mode, all the while billions were being printed in quantitative easing and so much bullish news kept happening for the crypto market – it just seemed like the best thing to do.

Was it the best thing to do tho?

Yes and no.

Yes in the sense that I HODL’d the majority of my investments to their tops — taking out little pieces here and there.

And no in the sense that I lost sight about know when to exit the market.

If you don’t know what HODLing is, it’s a long-term investment strategy in crypto which allows you to:

1) Poop your pants more often than not
2) Deal with volatility while keeping an eye on the long-term.

The crypto market, as I see it, is not about day trading. It's about investing for the long run. It’s also a 2 steps forward 1 step game.

But at the same time, you need to protect your gains sometimes. And sell — either all or some of the asset.

For example, in May of this year, I saw my portfolio drop almost 40%.

I sold in July after riding that baby all the way down…which is:

Mistake 2

If I had just held I would be back up almost 30% by now (I’m now back up around 18%).

At times I just want to put my seed phrase in a lockbox with a timer for 10 years. This has been the best decision for so many investors!

Anyways, so after going through this rollercoaster, I find myself asking…

Coulda shoulda had I sold the top?

Everyone knows it’s impossible to do this, but is there a tool we can use as investors, other than an exit or HODL strategy?

  Intuitive Investing

Recently I was listening to an interview with Robert Kiyosaki (not my favorite guy honestly) and BiggerPockets.

They mentioned something which was really great.

They were talking about when to sell.

Essentially, it had to do with a feeling you have when you should potentially consider selling.

That feeling is easy to identify..

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Speaking from experience, I now know that it’s vital to include intuition in this decision-making process.

Because various times, I knew I should have taken more off the table.

When we are looking to protect our gains and try and identify an intuitive sell signal, we must be aware of that internal voice, feeling, whatever that’s telling us...

Hey, the market is kind of hott right now — I’m okay with with loosing some potential gains to secure some profits.

And listen.

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Recently, the market returned to 2.4 trillion dollars, and I was getting this same feeling with many of my investments.

Bitcoin is projected by many to enter another bull cycle here in Q4 2021 and go into 2022…

But, what if instead we have another May 2021 or March 2020 crash? There’s so much instability on the regulatory side of crypto right now.

At the same time, on-chain metrics are bullish and investors are ready with stable coins to continue to pour gasoline on this fire as the FED prints away Benjamin’s like a heroin addict refills their needle.

These are all thoughts affecting my decision-making lately.

What have I done?

I’ve taken some chips off the table – but left in around 50% of my portfolio in the market. I’m obviously betting we continue higher.

Anyway, lessons learned and we continue to push forward.

Let's see how this plays out.

Peace out.

#notfinancialadvice

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Ras Mantilla
Ras Mantilla

Fintech Writer - Blockchain and Digital Assets

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