On 1st September 1939 Hitler launched an unprovoked attack on Poland and two days later, exactly 85 years ago today, Britain and France responded by declaring war on Germany.

This was the moment when World War II officially started to many. However, the Chinese will disagree, as will Russia, and let's remember that the US didn't become involved until after Pearl Harbour in December 1941, six months after Russia "joined" the fight against the Nazis.

What if scenarios have been played out for years in terms of preventing the War or even shortening it and these are the lessons we need to have learnt before today and possibly we would not be in the position we are today.

While proudly British, I have long argued that Britain and France were the main culprits because we cultivated an atmosphere in which Nazism and Hitler flourished. We sent mixed signals and only finally said enough is enough when Polish territory was already under attack. Admittedly, fear of another war and domestic politics played their role but it was no excuse.

World War I reparations were brutal because of the Kaiser's "blank cheque" promise and the sense that Germany both used and bankrolled what should have been a regional war between The Austrian Empire and Serbia following the Sarajevo assassination. This was excessive and generated a lot of resentment in Germany which Hitler later capitalised on.

Hitler's message was simple "We were stabbed in the back, Versailles was wrong and it was all the fault of the Jews".

So, here is is a summary of what went wrong. I have decided to mention the Wall Street Crash which affected the Germany economy more than any other in the world before getting into my shortlist, as it was an international event that was felt around the world and little to do with the internal situation in Germany. The main consequence was that the US pulled its loans from Germany and completely destabilised their economy. It could be argued that the US could have tried to make the landing softer for Germany, but that would have been at the cost of its own economy

So here goes.

• During a particularly harsh winter during the period 1923-25, the French confiscated all of the German coal, even that for domestic use causing untold misery and suffering to regular German people. Belgium and France occupied the Rhineland in 1923 when Germany fell behind on its war reparations.
• Hitler came to power in January 1933 as initially as Chancellor and assumed total power upon the death of President Hindenburg in 1934. He rebranded himself as Fuehrer (Leader) and consolidated power by moving to crush democracy and remove any threats including his long time ally and Comrade in Arms, Ernst Rohm, leader of the SA. His brutal methods during the "Night of the Long Knives", just before the death of Hindenburg, was a warning to how ruthless Hitler was.
• Hitler reoccupied the Rhineland in March 1936 and even purportedly said that if the British and French make the slightest move they should retreat. Hitler was testing their resolve and Hitler claimed his first victory.
• Hitler joined Austria to the Third Reich in March 1938, something expressly forbidden by Versailles. Britain and France did nothing after all Hitler was only uniting Germans.
• Hitler moved against the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia (younger readers check your maps) with a largely German population and even worse than doing nothing Britain sold Czechoslovakia down the river to guarantee "Peace in our time" in September 1938. Czechslovakia had more than adequate defences in place in the mountains that were ceded to Germany that could have done a lot of damage to Germany had the country been left intact and had Hitler still tried to claim it. THIS WAS BRITAIN'S REAL BETRAYAL (sorry Poland!). The Czech lands were now laid bare.
• In March 1939 Hitler occupied the rest of the Czech lands and came to an accommodation with Slovakia. The Czechs were unable to offer any resistance and for the first time Hitler brought a significant number of non-Germans into the Reich. The scales finally fell off the eyes of Britain and France (it could be argued that they were buying time to rearm and be ready to face Germany, but already three chances had been missed).
• Late August 1939 Hitler through Ribbentrop makes a deal with Stalin through Molotov sealing Poland's fate or did he?
• Invasion of Poland started on 1st September 1939, Britain and France's declaration of war comes two days later and a further two weeks later Stalin invades Eastern Poland to "protect his Slavic brothers".

Here is the rub.

Despite propaganda Germany's armed forces were at best 20% motorised and well outnumbered by the French alone (without even mentioning the British). However, the British decided to drop "Stop the War" pamphlets over Germany instead of bombs and the French advanced a mere 10km into Germany so not to provoke them too much and also to stay under the protection of the guns of the Maginot Line.

German defences in the west were paper thin and a more determined push would have either opened the road to Berlin or forced Germany to pull forces out of Poland to defend their homeland. This would have, at the very least, slowed the invasion of Poland down or may even have turned the tide. The French were far more mechanised than the Germans, but poorly deployed and too dependent on defence that was concentrated on the Maginot Line.

Forget the British, the French alone had enough firepower, but lacked the will to deal a deathly blow against the Nazis and if the French could be in Berlin before the Germans reached Warsaw this would have been a game changer and Stalin may even have backed out.

The British failed over the Sudetenland and the French failed at the outbreak of War.

So now 85 years later...

• Putin destroys the fledgling Russian democracy and removes free speech and kills opponents
• Putin and the FSB manufacture terrorist attacks to justify crushing Chechnya (Hitler's premise for attacking Poland was a false flag attack on a radio station in Gliwice during the night of 31 August - 1st September).
• Putin picks a fight with Georgia and the West do nothing.
• Putin illegally occupies Crimea in 2014
• Putin launches his special operation in 2022 which is actually a full on invasion of Ukraine that the Ukrainians have largely stalled thanks to their determination and spirit and with some aid from the West (who seem to be doing just enough to keep them in the fight).

So in the end, we are in the September 1939 moment with the only difference being that the Ukrainians are receiving some help whereas the Poles got none.

To summarise

If Russia stops fighting there is no War, but if Ukraine stops fighting there is no Ukraine.

As always stay safe and well my friends.