Check your FOMO & FUD temperatures with me in real time.

I’m currently writing this while I listen to a spaces about a collaboration between a DEX on Arbitrum (Camelot) and another Arbitrum project called JonesDAO.

It’s not ideal to split my focus, but I want to evaluate my FOMO impulses in real time. It’s something I’ve meant to do here in this blazing hot Blockchain Echo Bubble.

This is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.

This article NOT about the projects I mentioned above. It’s about curbing my impulses to ape more $$ into projects for invalid reasons.

First of all, at THIS point in time, I’m very aware of my emotions because I still have leaking wounds from the crash.

So, I’ll just say it straight: When I hear founders shill the word “alpha”, I think “Go fuck yourself”. When I hear them say “I can’t say too much about it, but it’s gonna be huge…” I think, you guessed it: “Go fuck yourself”.

I hope everyone does, to be honest. They’re saying it to give you a future vision of wealth that is not going to happen.

That said, I‘m a major fan of Camelot. I have invested, and will probably add, but NOT because of what they say on a spaces.

Real time, I just hopped into the discord server to look at the comments as they’re hyping the project. Um, they’re excited. Comments like “The hype is Real” and “Real Alpha”.

Here’s the thing. The hype IS real. I’m currently up 3x on Camelot and JonesDAO was pumping during their conversation.

But a spaces should NOT be a reason for a pump. No one in their right mind should be buying because two human beings are bullish on their own projects and the ecosystem that they’re building.

They’re waxing sarcastic ‘no brainer’ commentary on the 100x future we all deserve. They’re offering secrets on project collaborations that are in the works.

Again, there is a reason that these projects are pumping and I’m not saying that you should distrust the leaders. They just believe in themselves, and they have the team to execute so far.

In fact, I wouldn’t want to invest in leaders who didn’t believe in themselves.

But…have we felt this way before? Yes. Um, well, yes. Actually, yes. Every time we’ve ever felt great about a project, we felt this way. Every single time, right?

So let’s not bite on this. Let’s check the temp on our FOMO.

I’m reminding myself that there are whales involved. And they make it a point to sell before you and I. They have to. Their bags are too big to sell on the way down. They have more at stake than us.

WHALES HAVE TO SELL BEFORE US.

This is not a dark force created to destroy our wealth. This is not a dirty secret buried under the surface by some global cabal of crypto glaciers.

They just…HAVE to sell before us, or else they won’t have an opportunity to exit their larger positions later. They wouldn’t be whales if they didn’t sell before us.

That means, if a 5x is good enough for a whale, then a 4x has to be good enough for us…and (unless we’re mentally deficient ingrates) we should ABSOLUTELY be good with a 4x.

Listen, whales make our bags. So, whales must also take our bags. They’re also taking from each other.

Which leads me to the next fallacy:

IT AIN’T ABOUT US.

The market has no idea if you’re late on your mortgage. It will never ever ever check in on you to make sure you’re okay. It has no intention of giving you a better life.

It has fashioned itself to give you FOMO. It is a mirror of your greed and insecurities.

Though we already know this, it’s important to remember that FOMO and FUD are as old as markets themselves.

More specifically, Mr. Market has created conditions that tell us that we’ve done enough research, talked to enough founders, or “played with the tech” enough to make the right bets.

Next week, Mr. Market will tell us that we’re imposters. We can’t simply skim a few medium articles and understand the underlying risks.

The truth is, most of the people that DID do the work still lost a fuck ton of money in the crash. Think about how much smarter they are than us.

Okay. I think I’m ready to land at my own advice TO MYSELF.

Start with one ecosystem. Think about it from a vantage.

Here’s my current advice to myself:

Remember that your interest is in the future of Ethereum. For over a year, I’ve believed that Arbitrum will be a major part of that future. There is a family of projects with very smart people building on Arbitrum. I’m looking for projects that are linking these smart people.

Camelot spoke directly to my thesis by creating a “Round Table” and adding Artbitrum partners to it. These innovations should be bound by their stakes in this project, aka: They should all be incentivized to hold the token of this project.

I have proven success to myself previously on similar trades.

The moment 20% of these projects sell Camelot, or stop buying Camelot, or stop launching on Camelot, it is time for me to sell.

This is what a whale will do.

So I should probably replace 20% with 15%.

Original Content, Copywright© ProofofBeans 2023. Similar Version first published on Medium

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