Bitcoin dips below $10 000 for a brief moment, could it be the last ever?

As predicted the $9200 support held during the recent Bitcoin price drop. Actually price only fell to around $9500 and has since bounced up to over $10 000. There was massive buying as can be seen on the four hour chart volume levels, where the low printed a super long-handled hammer candlestick pattern. This is a clear sign of price uptrend or upswing and change in direction. Buyers were keen to get some sub-$10k Bitcoin.

Record breaking low on the 4 hour RSI has just formed at 13 out of 100, this is the most oversold we have been since November 2018. That was the last time the 4 hour reached such oversold levels. To me this looks the time for a large upswing in price is due. I wouldn’t be surprised if price dipped still more to that $9200 level though. The last time the 4 hour RSI was so low, back in November 2018, was the fateful price crash from the long-held $6k region. From there we saw a massive dip of 50% to just over $3k, the lowest low for the recent bear cycle.

Since Bitcoin price has already fallen 15% in the past 48 hours, I wouldn’t be surprised if we repeat the pattern of November 2018 and see more of a tumble in price, so don’t get overly optimistic just yet. Allow price to show itself. If an uptrend emerges now then buy in on the way up, rather than try to call the direction right now.

On the daily chart we can see that price has just bounced off the 100 day EMA or moving average price level. This is on the Bittrex chart. I’m using it today for the USDT price equivalent because Binance is down for maintenance for about six hours. Curious timing just as we see this particularly noteworthy dip in the price. Price has not dropped back down to the 100 day EMA since late February when we were still in the $3000s. Hopefully this is the perfect place for price to bounce back upward.

The RSI on the daily chart is at a local low support level of 40, though could drop still further to 36, which is the support we saw in February during those low prices. It does look like the RSI is curling and levelling out so let’s see that as a bullish potential.

MACD on the daily chart has just crossed negative earlier this week as the downtrend kicked in, and may still indicate some more downward momentum, so again be prepared for more dip in price or at least some sideways range bound trading at these lows. This is a decent place for re-accumulation. We can never be sure when the bottom is in to buy, so it may help to start dollar cost averaging in already, at each dip and stabilization of price.

This is for the more high risk traders. The more conservative type would wait until they see a clear uptrend in price before buying in, but the medium risk trader would start buying in already, in small amounts, never all at once, in case price drops still further. The really conservative trader would refrain from buying in at all until price dropped to the 200 day EMA around $7000.

For me the fact that Bitcoin price has already tested the 100 day EMA now and found support, is a sign to start buying in. Already price is back up above the psychological $10000, having spent only seven hours below it. It’s uncertain just what price will do, so if you missed that sub-$10k Bitcoin window there, the chances of it returning there are about 50%. What a missed opportunity, we might look back and think one day. None of this is financial advice, just my opinion based on observation and nothing more. We’ll talk about the world economic instability and it’s impact on Bitcoin price at another post. Happy trading.

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Bitcoin Babaji
Bitcoin Babaji

Self- employed, writer and researcher into cryptocurrency and consciousness.

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