A poll released by the Des Moines Register and CNN, which was published Jan. 10th, shows that Senator Bernie Sanders has taken the lead in the first caucus state and first voting state in the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primaries. Sen. Sanders has received 20%(a gain of +5%; compared to the this poll done in November 2019 by the same organization) of support among likely caucus goers, followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 17%(+1%), then Pete Buttigieg at 16%(-9%), and former VP Joe Biden at at 15%(+/-0%). So since November 2019, we have seen a fall with Pete Buttigieg, a surge with Sen. Sanders, and Sen. Warren and VP Biden have stayed the same.
Leading up to the February 3rd Iowa Caucuses, this is the time where candidates would need a surge, to have the momentum behind them leading to the caucuses, which the way to win caucuses are to have momentum. The only candidate that is having any relevant surge is Sen. Bernie Sanders.
In the following primary election, the New Hampshire Primary on Feb. 11th, Sen. Bernie Sanders has taken the lead in the Real Clear Politics average at 21.5% nearly 3% higher than the next person VP Biden, and Sen. Sanders won the primary in the 2016 Presidential Primary overwhelmingly, with over 60% of the vote against Hillary Clinton.
If the trends stay steady, it is looking more and more like Senator Bernie Sanders will win the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primaries, which will give three weeks of news coverage, positive or not, to Sen. Sanders campaign leading into the Nevada Caucuses, which happens on Feb. 22nd, which will certainly help increase his turnout in Nevada.
In the Nevada Caucus polls, Sen. Sanders is second in the Real Clear Politics average at 19.7%, behind VP Biden at 28.3%. The most recent poll, a Fox News poll, of the Nevada Caucus has shown the spread to be far closer, with former VP Biden at 23% and Sen. Bernie Sanders at 17%, a difference of just 6 points, followed by Sen. Warren and Tom Steyer both at 12%, which isn't enough to get any delegates(the requirement for any delegates is 15% of the vote).
*Edit- An earlier version of this article stated that Sen. Warren had a (+/-0%) between November and January, when Sen. Warren gained +1% during that time period*
