Publication in Russian on the Zen blog
https://dzen.ru/a/Zt7WWk8fZXQVGYD7
In this post, I challenge the narrative that Ukraine’s economic collapse is due to demographic decline. Drawing on historical examples such as post-war Germany and Japan, the Thirty Years’ War, and modern success stories such as Estonia and Poland, I show how economic growth can continue after conflict, even if demographic trends are negative. I discuss why Ukraine is poised for economic success after the war. I discuss the potential for Ukraine’s post-conflict revival and why demographics will not be an obstacle to economic growth.
Despite demographic challenges, Ukraine will prosper.
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In this post, I will talk about the coming economic movement in Ukraine. I want to touch on the issue of demographic decline in Ukraine and what is happening in countries where there is a demographic decline. Many experts argue that demographic decline in general is bad for the economy. This is based on the Malthusian understanding of economics and Alvin Hansen's reset from the 1930s (the Great Depression in the United States). American economist, Harvard professor and director of the National Economic Council Lawrence Summers repeated this in 2013 during the Great Stagnation and implied that natural real interest rates are actually negative, and this is all due to the declining demographics of an aging population. And when you have an aging population and a declining demographic of the workforce, people contributing to the economy, you also have declining demand. Let's look at historical experience, this is relevant for Ukraine, because it is argued that the demographic situation in Ukraine is getting worse, the demographic decline can last for 30-50 years. Experts have said that this is a problem for Ukraine. But let's look at some facts from a historical perspective. In the fifth century, the Byzantine Empire had declining demographics. After the fall of the Western Roman Empire, the Eastern Roman Empire (Byzantium, Constantinople) had demographic problems, and yet Byzantium, after the fall of the Western Roman Empire, became the most powerful economic, cultural and military force in Europe, surviving for another 1000 years after the fall of Rome. The Black Plague of 1347, when by 1353 between 30 and 50% of the world's population disappeared, resulted in a massive demographic shift, but the end result years later was a powerful economic boom, a redistribution of land ownership and capital, when entrenched capitalism led to a revival of trade and industry. In another period, the Thirty Years' War that began in 1618 in Europe caused a huge demographic decline, and yet the result was a resurgence of economic prosperity in Europe. There are also some modern examples of post-war Germany and Japan, and the Marshall Plan of 1947. Japan had a huge economic boom despite a demographic decline. Japan had a demographic decline in the 2000s, but the standard of living in Japan continues to rise, life expectancy continues to rise. In the modern world, Estonia had a demographic decline, but they mitigated it, just like Poland today has a demographic decline, but also a huge economic boom. When they say that Ukraine is experiencing a demographic decline, it is because people do not understand capitalism, free trade and free markets, and stable government, people do not understand what determines wealth. So when Ukraine comes under the NATO umbrella, it does not matter whether it joins the EU or not, but being under the NATO umbrella, it will have free movement of labor and capital, Ukraine will have a huge benefit. In the reality of today's civilized world, people do not work in factories, as in the days of Charles Dickens, today we need not just working people, but smart people, and such people can belong to any part of society, rich or poor, everyone. Information technology does not require a lot of workers, but just a few working brains, we can safely expect an economic boom and prosperity in Ukraine. A person coming to the EU countries looks below the average level of those living here, in the neighboring country with Ukraine - in Poland, everyone has some kind of business center, country houses, they spend their holidays everywhere - Vietnam, Greece, Italy, this is a fairly rich country, thanks to the wealth and prosperity of the local population. By analogy, Poland and Ukraine are in many ways parallel countries. And Ukraine can become the richest country in Europe, boldly declaring that it has 13 trillion dollars of mineral wealth, Ukraine has a huge bread basket and they can feed all of Europe. Rich black soil, bright minds. This is what happened with the "leprechaun economy" when Ireland went from being the poorest country in Europe to the richest once free market trade was established. So there could be very optimistic times ahead for the Ukrainian economy. Ukraine has a lot to offer that other countries don't have, that the European Union doesn't have. The main thing for Ukrainians is to stay optimistic and not be negative about anything. When Ukraine wins and Russia loses, and it will, the world will see Ukraine's huge economic potential, capital inflow, humanitarian and economic aid, it will be a Ukrainian economic miracle, just watch it happen. Ukraine has huge potential and will definitely become a superstar. It is only important to eradicate corruption at the highest levels of power. Have a nice day and thank you very much for reading the publication.
Reconstruction and economic development of Ukraine in the post-conflict period.
Томас Мальтус – английский ученый, демограф и экономист. Он – автор теории, согласно которой рост народонаселения приводит к снижению благосостояния и массовому голоду. Отсюда Мальтус считал войны и эпидемии подлинным благом для человечества, поскольку они помогают сократить количество народа на Земле, чтобы оставшиеся жили лучше.
В целом, надо понимать, что по всей видимости он и его последователи были провозвестниками будущей теории "золотого миллиарда" .
Адам Смит - шотландский экономист и философ-этик, один из основоположников экономической теории как науки. Считается основателем классической политэкономии.
If you are interested in biology, you know one thing: after extinction, there is an explosion of species. In economics, there are also some similarities in terms of demography, where new conditions and opportunities arise.
The struggle of Ukraine today is what makes for a better future. They will despise the backward corrupt system of Russia and want to get as far away from it as possible - just like other civilized societies of the new era. And I will not be surprised if after the war, Ukraine starts attracting more liberal and hardworking Russians to migrate.
Russia is not free and may not be free for another 100 years. Ukraine is winning and fighting for freedom. When people are free, they get up in the morning and think... how can I improve my life. Self-improvement or creative thinking or imagination or productivity or exercise or yoga or charity for the poor or crowdsourcing or out-of-the-box thinking or going to school or starting a business or trading and traveling and making friends and doing business. When people are not free, they go to work as prescribed by some economic planner. Russia is not free.
Bankers, stock traders and politicians more than anyone else fear that population decline is synonymous with market decline. It is not. The best economic growth is productivity growth, not demographic growth.
And what do you think about the declining demographics in Russia and China? That is different because they are not democracies. They are not free markets, so they cannot adapt in the same way. Yes, China, because it has mixed capitalism, Russia is a mafia state, so that is another matter. In a free situation, not an imperial situation, a small population is not a bad thing. Norway, Iceland, Denmark, Canada vs. India.
Ukraine's priority is to eradicate corruption and adopt new transparency laws. Ukraine wants to be part of Europe. Ukrainians are Europeans, while Russians are a completely different cultural world. People in Russia are politically passive and apathetic, and corruption is the accepted norm.
As for the reference to Thomas Malthus. I completely disagree with his gloomy predictions about the doom of the world. But it is important to note that the resources on our planet are finite, that is true. But the free human brain is unlimited in its ability to adapt and adjust. The basic idea is that people in a free market adapt. Free people are creative problem solvers. Markets in a free economy adapt to the fact that people are smart, flexible and creative. So I disagree with Thomas Malthus and the "golden billion" theory.
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Publication in Russian on the Zen blog
https://dzen.ru/a/Zt7WWk8fZXQVGYD7
