Publication in Russian on the Zen blog
https://dzen.ru/a/Zq4aUYB272QUE0GU
Russia has laid all its cards on the table. We know what Russia is. But what are China's geopolitical and economic aspirations?
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I want to talk about two countries that have enormous geopolitical influence in the world - Russia and China. And I want to compare these two countries not necessarily in terms of economic data, but simply in terms of their geopolitical strategies and future developments. It is safe to say that Russia is a mercantile expansionist system that seeks global domination through control of natural resources and behind-the-scenes political influence. China is more of a question mark. I will tell you a story about a few days I was traveling by train from one city to another, and my neighbor was Chinese. We got to talking, and then in the middle of the conversation he looked at me and said, "The Chinese don't like you." And I thought, "Wow, maybe it's time to plan an escape?" "The Chinese don't like you, they just want to make some money," he continued. And my eyes were opened and I realized and I began to notice and observe that the Chinese are very family oriented and very entrepreneurial, in fact, real unrepentant capitalists on a microeconomic level. In general, the Chinese are very warm-hearted, but you shouldn't look at China through rose-colored glasses, there is a huge difference between the Chinese government and the Chinese people. The Chinese government is a capitalist government with a dynamic cultural development, China wants to dominate regionally, they want to take back Taiwan, they have claims on the islands of Southeast Asia, even Tibet, they may have claims on Siberia, but that's another story, so China's strategy is capitalism. Relentless ruthless capitalism combined with technology. It's actually technocracy combined with some of the burden of cultural dominance on their shoulders. But the good news is that unlike Russia, which is feudal capitalist mercantilism, they will acquire land, they will develop it, they will invest in the Chinese and in the Chinese economy, so what China is concerned about at this point is geopolitical dominance in their regions. And if we compare the two countries, my God, Russia has 140 million people, China has over a billion. So Russia, in theory, is not a geopolitical threat compared to China. But the reality is that Russia is relentlessly and ruthlessly more aggressive and militaristic. The Chinese in their culture revere peace, harmony, and so on, but that doesn't mean they are peaceful, they have huge human rights issues, and they have regional dominance as a superpower. The reality is that China can stumble over its relations with Taiwan in particular, which can trigger and ignite a major global geopolitical issue, so we should not look at China through rose-colored glasses. Right now, Russia has shown its face, China has not put all its cards on the table, and China looks like a neutral party, providing for Russia under the Eternal Friendship Treaty, but at the same time taking a very reserved and cautious position, which makes it difficult to determine what steps China is going to take. I think China will play a wait-and-see role and see what happens in Ukraine. When they see what happens in Ukraine and what Russia does, then they can come to some conclusions and what they are going to do. Maybe China will tone down its demands and maybe continue to be just a regional cultural dominant force. Most of the ideas in Russia are feudal materialism and imperialism. Two different strategies of China and Russia. But there is one observation, which is that before 2022, China started to show some xenophobia and populist rhetoric, and this rhetoric has intensified. Maybe it is a coincidence, but the same thing was promoted by Russia in Slovakia, Hungary, the United States, this popularism, this promoted nationalism. Maybe in China they are pushing the same buttons as in Russia, but if I were a person who wanted to make a bet, I could say with great certainty that Russia will be defeated and reformatted. But what is the future of China is a question mark, what are their real goals and objectives in the future, but they will have to adapt, because the world around China is rapidly growing and changing, and China's wrong moves can pose a threat to them, leaving them in the dust and without a livelihood. Thank you very much for reading the publication.
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A little fresh look at China's "historical claim" to Taiwan. According to experts in genetics and linguistics, the "natives" of what we now call Taiwan were not Han Chinese. They are considered "Austronesians." According to archaeological research, they have lived for more than 10,000 years. To this day, there are still a number of these "native peoples" who make their living from fishing and, to a lesser extent, agriculture. So much for China's "historical claim." Taiwan's status has been in question since the defeat of Japan and the end of World War II. Mao Zedong and his followers fled to the mountains rather than confront the Japanese, leaving General Chiang Kai Chek to defend the entire mainland. It was an intolerable situation that led to the general's retreat to Taiwan. China has never controlled Taiwan. In fact, the real reason for China's resentment and envy of Taiwan stems from the fact that the Republic of Taiwan is a constant reminder of what a successful, democratic, and truly "capitalist" society can achieve. Do you or anyone else believe that the good people of Hong Kong are better off since its return to the PRC? "One government, two systems" has quickly faded into the background. Hong Kong and Shanghai were the shining stars of international banking. Look at them today. The Chinese stock market is on the verge of total collapse. Capital is fleeing to places like Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, and elsewhere. As for war, it does seem inevitable at times, but China cannot afford the subsequent sanctions and naval blockade of oil, food, etc. In any case, we must prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
China is certainly watching Ukraine closely to weigh its chances in dealing with Taiwan.
Red China at least talks to world leaders, while Putin is now "incommunicado" with the West, and Putin cannot travel the world freely as in the past. Putin is a pariah, and the world is trying its best to be friends with Red China. If Russia collapses, Red China will be eager to seize Siberia. Taiwan is well armed and would inflict bloody losses on Red China, but would capitulate to annexation in due course. The point is that Red China has been far more successful in its international relations and interests than Putin, who has mismanaged Russia domestically and internationally. As for Taiwan, a diplomatic agreement must be made in the event of a 10-year transition to annexation by Red China. The people of Taiwan have 10 years to cash out and move to sanctuary countries that will accept their prized virtues. The Taiwanese who decide to stay will simply have to accept this in order to live under communism, its laws and rules. A diplomatic deal with Red China will require them to make concessions in cooperation with the world and the West in the name of peace and friendship.
Neither China nor Russia trust each other, their "friendship" is more fragile than it appears at first glance.
Russia is much more complacent here and is involved in the terrible expansionism and cruelty of the Kremlin called the "Russian World".
Russia will fail and possibly collapse either due to military failures or economic shocks. It has terrible demographics, is poor in technology, but is rich in natural resources. China needs access to resources, and the nearest source of these resources is Russia. I doubt that China will try to gain access to these resources by military means, but rather by economic means. Until Russia collapses, China will continue to be ambiguous in its relations, but it clearly understands that its economy is much stronger.
The biggest threat China poses is economic, although it remains military. Russia is a direct military threat of expansionism, no different from Germany in the 30s and 40s. At the same time, China does not have a large enough middle class to support its huge manufacturing sector. Their economy is directly dependent on selling consumer goods to the US. The destruction of the US will destroy their economy.
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Publication in Russian on the Zen blog
https://dzen.ru/a/Zq4aUYB272QUE0GU
