Pena Edukasi - The crypto market is back in the spotlight after three macro and on-chain indicators simultaneously gave Bitcoin (BTC) the green light. The dramatic increase in US dollar liquidity, the consecutive rally on the stock market, and the sharp decline in BTC supply on exchange platforms have analysts confident that the price of this largest digital asset has the potential to break through its all-time high. However, several resistance levels remain, so investors are advised to maintain strict risk management.
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Bitcoin Ready to Soar? These Are the 3 Main Triggers for a New Record
image: Bitcoin illustration 3 Main Triggers for a New Record
Liquidity Floods & the US Dollar Weakens
The US Federal Reserve continues to pump money reserves. Glassnode noted that the M2 money supply surged to a record US$21.94 trillion, an all-time high. The surge in liquidity was accompanied by a sharp decline in the dollar index (DXY) to 96.37, its weakest since February 2022.
There has long been a pattern where Bitcoin tends to rise when the US dollar (DXY) weakens, and vice versa. When the greenback's value is under pressure, global investors tend to seek alternative instruments to maintain purchasing power. "With the dollar's purchasing power increasingly eroded, Bitcoin is again seen as a hedge," said crypto economist Sarah Villanova. She added that the availability of cheap liquidity gives speculative funds a reason to enter deeper into the digital asset market.
Risk-On Sentiment Emerges on Wall Street
The rally isn't limited to the crypto market. This week, the S&P 500, NVIDIA, and the US 100 technology index all set new record highs. This risk-on phenomenon has also spread to BTC, given the strong five-year correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500.
Historically, July has often been a positive month. Over the past 10 years, the S&P 500 has consistently strengthened each time it enters this period. Bitcoin has never fallen more than 10% in the same month. "The optimistic Q2 earnings season has added fuel to investors' desire for riskier assets, including crypto," explained market analyst David Kim.
BTC Supply on Exchanges Shrinks to 6-Year Low
Selling pressure appears to be easing in the spot market. According to Glassnode on-chain data, the percentage of Bitcoin on exchanges (14.5% of the total) has reached its lowest point since August 2018. This statistic indicates that more coin holders are opting for a long-term HODL strategy.
Technically, the daily chart shows a bull flag formation, a consolidation pattern that typically appears before a price increase continues. Independent analyst Crypto Rover projects that if this pattern is confirmed, the price could potentially surge directly to the US$120,000 range in the next few trading sessions. "Trading volume is thinning in the resistance zone; if it breaks through, there's ample room to the upside," he wrote in his daily research.
Breakout Opportunity vs. Threat of Correction
Despite positive macro signals, BTC's price movement for the week remained trapped within a narrow range of US$106,000 – US$108.700. NoOnes CEO, Ray Youssef, believes the market is awaiting additional "catalytic drivers," such as central bank policy announcements or US inflation data, before breaking out of its consolidation phase.
"Bitcoin's price has repeatedly failed to hold above US$108.500. If it manages to close the daily candle above US$108.800, the ATH area of US$111.9800 will be the next target," he said, as quoted by BeInCrypto.
If this psychological level is broken, analysts' intermediate targets shift to US$130,000 in the third quarter and US$150,000 towards the end of the year. Conversely, failure to maintain the US$107,000 support could potentially trigger a rapid correction to US$105,000.
Implications for InvestorsWith volatility remaining high, domestic market players are advised to adhere to measured asset allocation principles. The Indonesian Crypto Exchange reported a 15% surge in BTC/IDR transaction volume in the past week, in line with global trends.
Conclusion
Three key indicators, excess global liquidity, a stock market rally, and a shrinking BTC supply on exchanges, signal that Bitcoin is poised to reach a new record. However, the key to confirmation lies in the price's ability to overcome the US$108.8,000 resistance. As long as this resistance remains unbroken, the consolidation phase is at risk of continuing.
Investors looking to increase their holdings can wait for the price to break through resistance or take advantage of corrections approaching strong support as buying opportunities. With a potential target of US$120,000–US$150,000 in the 2025 horizon, Bitcoin is once again attractive as a hedge—as long as risk management strategies are adhered to.
This article was written independently and does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell crypto assets. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
