Tis the season of DOOM

The Year End Review with some Hard Truths

By LukeWaiks | Page 2 Crypto | 24 Dec 2021


In the spirit of corny year end review, I’d like to share my unsolicited opinion on the broad crypto market, the unrealized prophecy of 100k Bitcoin, the misfires in the alt market and my thoughts on the future.

In short, dark times, fellows. Notable Bitcoin pundits like Scott Melker, Willy Woo and Max Keiser are eating their hats. All year they were certain Bitcoin would be above 100k.

So why the miss? Other analysts believe larger entities (read whales) are top-selling around 60k, settling debts for sub market rates. The end of 2021 is also seeing the federal prohibition of “wash sales”. A wash sale is an opportunity for whales to hide their gains by selling low, losing money, with the intention of reacquiring more when the price drops, betting on long term gains to hide short term ones. Apparently, this is seen as immoral. I think its merely one of many tools money managers employ to hide gains for the wealthy. I wont comment on the morality of earning and preserving wealth. I will point out that this little bear market is a result of this coming law.

Why do I winge about Bitcoin when I promised at the start to not cover the top coins? Well, as Bitcoin goes, so does the alt market. Bored, rich nerds have less capital to invest in utility tokens.

Page 2 is rife with rollback of 40 percent over the last 90 days. Cest l’vie.

Didnt make 100k

BAT has been a notable exception...

BAT, man!

Celo, which I dislike because it is in the running for CBDCs, has been unimpressive.

Celo or not

Mina, of which I have high hopes, has been flat.

Lets go Mina!

The insane rise of Dogelon Mars…. Has fizzled.

DownGelonMars

Horizen, which I have high hopes for, has fizzled as well.

ZEN

Siacoin too.

seeya

I was watching two notable sales for DAO platforms that I had much faith in. Colony DAO, which is a well thought out governance tool kit, had a major snafu with their roll- out, many of the problems stemming from Coin Machine. Governor DAO is another interesting product, but their roll out started in the middle 2 dollar range, then dropped to the 1 dollar range.

Waiting on GDAO

 

But, like the peaks, the dips are temporary and I’m not about to declare crypto dead, yo. The end of the year, especially around Christmas, has historically seen major pumps. Last year, in fact, saw BTC 2xing past 25k, which kept momentum going for a rocking year for the altcoins as well. The rampant money printing, hamstrung economy, and major systemic disruptions will eventually lead to investors seeking real, stable assets to preserve wealth. Which leads to my last, concerning point.

Speaking of Bitcoin, a long running podcast with co hosts Adam Levine, Stephanie Murphy and the legendary Andreas M. Antonopoulos put out a very dire episode on inflation. Inflation, or the perceived devaluation of the purchasing power of the dollar, has been a major topic lately (see my previous paragraph on money printing). This podcast has always served as a lighthouse for me. The hosts are incredibly knowledgeable, sane and the smartest people in the room. And they are panicking about inflation. It is eerie to hear it in their voices during what is normally a fun, but sane and well reasoned discussion. The mainstream pundits and the Federal Reserve have been saying inflation is transitory, seasonal and minor. Now they say it’s not as bad as you think.

The hosts point out that inflation is 15 percent and increasing, if you calculate inflation the same way the Fed did 15 years ago. Yes, the Fed has been massaging the way they measure inflation to make it appear to be lower than it is. In fact, the Fed has attempted to keep inflation at around 2 percent. Why they think inflation is good is obvious- they want to hide the damage they cause by printing more dollars. Inflation is bad. It erodes your wealth, forcing you to invest your savings or watch them wither in your low interest yielding saving accounts. And with record government spending, we now have record inflation in our lifetimes. Andreas, who was living in Greece during the 80s, saw inflation like this. He is typically calm and insightful, especially because he obviously holds a large amount of Bitcoin.

What does this mean for you, me and the rest of the plebs that don’t have lucrative jobs podcasting about acquiring Bitcoin? It’s not good, friend. The higher costs of PopTarts might be alarming to us, but the real alarm is the spendthrift governments turning kelptocrat. They’ll invent laws to seize your gains. Unrealized gains. If history is a guide, during major bouts of inflation, governments have seized gold (US Gold Reserve Act of 1933) and even seized money straight from your bank account (See Cyprus’ Haircut of 2013). Obvious ways to avoid this is to acquire real, durable assets you may not need right away, but can use and/or sell in the future. Buying appliances, keeping them in the box and selling them later is a possibility. Same with cars. It’s much more complicated to seize a washing machine than to raid your bank account.


Sorry about being a doomer,

OK DOOMER

but my goal with this blog is to share important insights that may guide you to a prosperous future. And if I’m wrong, hey, you got a spare washing machine out of the deal!

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LukeWaiks
LukeWaiks

Freelance journalist aping into the cryptospace


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