Good evening,

Today I'm going to present my bear case for BTC over the next few days. I do not mean to be pessimistic, but rather realistic. I apologize if I offend, but the reality of the matter is that everybody deserves to know where we may end up from a technical standpoint. After hearing some truly insane stuff on other social media sites about finance the last couple days (my personal favorite being the "inverse bubble" theory), I want to present my thoughts to anybody who cares to read.

First, the chart:

On a macro level, this is Bitcoin on the daily since our insane run starting in late 2020. What sort of formation we are currently in varies, but the case could be made for any of the following:

• Ascending Broadening Wedge (Bearish)
• Double/Triple Top (Bearish)
• Head and Shoulders (Bearish)
• Inverse Cup and Handle (Bearish) - Slightly shorter time frame (starts late July '21)
• Ascending Triangle (Bullish, but too long of a stretch between the lines drawn above that make it an ascending triangle, in my opinion)

Personally, I think we were in an ascending channel that broke down early May. Hindsight's wonderful and all, but the five touch points on the blue bottom line are all essentially price action screaming "get me out of here". See below for that channel.

And it got out, of course.

So where are we at now?

Well, the astute among you may have noticed the small bear pennant drawn in at our current price action. If I were currently looking to play BTC, I'd be watching this like a hawk:

This is now shifted to the two hour for a bit more precision, and for those of you that don't know, this is a bearish pennant. What I want to point out is two things that I think are equally important. First, we have been tangoing with USD$30 000 since May 10 and after our initial downward break out of support we have not varied from it much. Second, and more arguably, our volume since then has been rather high and consistent for low price-action periods. What this tells me is the following, in my opinion:

• The vast majority of the market has decided that this is a rather safe spot to both buy and sell. Is it repositioning or liquidating?
• Investors are waiting. Nobody wants to pull the trigger here for fear of being wrong. We're at a potential inflection point, but equally at a point where we could see the continuation pattern of a bear pennant resume.
• Most importantly, investors want to see what the global economy does.

The above pennant should resolve by the 25th. Watch for a breakout up or down and be sure to confirm it with volume. The downside here is definitely more likely and more scary than the upside because of the bearish nature of this pennant and the macroeconomy on the whole. If it breaks below $25 000, we could very well be in financial panic mode.

The above point regarding the global economy brings me to my last point; we might be dragged around by the global economy at this point, and in my opinion that does not bode well.

This is a snapshot of the SPY since it's ATH in early January on the daily. The trendlines show the increasing speed of the downtrend, and it's at the point where it could be a freefall any day if a few big players pull their money. This will unfortunately cascade into crypto as well.

So now what?

Well, I am certainly not a financial advisor so I am in no way qualified to give financial advice, but I would be watching the BTC bearish pennant and the SPY. The pennant should be resolved by the 22nd-23rd, and we will see if there is a recovery before the market decides to exert its will on crypto, which I would assume be a bad thing.

Upside targets: SPY breaking $410, $420, $427, $430, $453. BTC breaking $33 000, $37 500, or outside of the wedge upwards. Make sure you confirm these targets with a high amount of trade volume.

Downsides: SPY $358, $340, BTC $20 000 but will likely build new supports before then.

TLDR; Bearish charts. Global economy scary.

Update:

Also, $385 SPY is a big resistance point. As well as $28 700 for BTC.