Stages of WAR being set
Recall - WW1 began as a preventative trade war. That was the narrative anyways!
What WAR is that you ask?
The 2-week excursion between the US and Iran, which is morphing into WW III. Recall, the goal is " that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon."
Recall all Wars run based upon logistics, so let's dive in there first. At the time of this writing Brent Crude hit $110/Barrel. The Diesel crunch is set to worsen as and has gone global hitting a record all time high $6/Gallon.
How support for a wider war is happening right in plane site.
Widening Middle East War
First, you might have noticed the disproportionate responses from both sides (Iran and US) are increasing in frequency and sequence.
Entering the game, Iran's proxy Yemen
Yemen seized most of the Coast line along the Red Sea more specifically they seized Mayyun Island In Bab el-Mandeb capturing lots of American tanks as their prize. In response, Saudi's are rumored to have started a land campaign into Yemen. Saudi's have been busy constructing Hormuz Bypass' East-West Oil Pipeline. Yesterday, Houthi Strikes along that same East-West Oil Pipeline. Turns out the Houthi's hit the pipeline six (6) times. Which has been verified by six fires have been reported along this route.
Today's rumor mill has the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia may launch a major military operation against Houthis even without direct U.S. participation. Nor is Riyadh is not waiting for permission! This impacts 4% of global supply rates only!
Supertanker Rates Soaring To $800,000 A Day to transit Hormuz. So almost $1M a day for one tanker.
In the larger region
Rumors are swirling that UK is helping the Saudi's with their incursion in Yemen. Meanwhile the UK recently raised their draft age to 65. Could you imagine 65 and being trained for battle?
Russia has escalated tensions with Germany through direct threats of military strikes and an intensifying campaign of hybrid warfare, particularly following the discovery of an explosives-laden drone at Leipzig Airport in August 2026.
Russian threatened Poland and Baltic States in July
for participating in support operations for drone attacks deep inside Russia. Poland has increased their military budget and spend over the past few decades making it a more formidable force along Russia's Western flank.
Keep in mind NATO Article 5 states in summary form. If a NATO Ally sustains an armed attack, every other member of the Alliance will consider this as an armed attack against all members
Going East
S. Korea is discussing women entering their draft. This stems from a serious demographic crisis. Although, no immediate plans to draft women are in place. The idea is being floated, makes you wonder how long it would take from idea to conscription?
Summary
More bad news for global energy markets as reserves have been depleted and costs look poised to continue higher. I am seeing reports that Europe is going to have a very hard Winter (AKA Winter is coming) not sure I have enough details for other regions globally. It sure feels like the Theme for 2027 will be Energy Crisis. Anyone else feel that widening threat and asymmetric response across the Middle East into Ukraine/Russia and feel that things about to get really spicy across a much larger region? Global WW III anyone?
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