Mega US IPOs are upon us
Three USA heavy hitters are coming to the market via IPO
- Anthropic (Claude) - projected date is Oct. 22nd '26, recall it already has a valuation of $65Billion after its latest funding round
- OpenAI - prior to IPO recall Microsoft owns 27% of OpenAI. projected date is Nov. 26 '26
- and last but not least SpaceX the worlds largest IPO (SPCX) and it will come to market prior to the others, expected June 12th
Let's jump into SpaceX deeper, as it will come to market before the others. SpaceX generated $18.7B in revenue in 2025, yet still reported a $4.9B net loss. From a traders prospective this will pull a massive amount of retail money into the markets and cause institutional money rotation (i.e. sell one sector to buy into this IPO offerings at some price level).
Cons
taking investment capital from other publicly available Space oriented offerings such as Rocket Labs.
Main Stream Media is going to hype all these offerings pulling in every last cent.
Underlying equity markets are already creaking under stress, some examples include:
- Advance/decline line breadth is concerning
- New highs/lows shows direct lack of participation from broader market
- Global All Time Highs (ATH) - KOSPI, NIKKEI, Taiwain, S&P, NASDAQ
- YEN carry trade as potential for fully unwinding after a 2-decade run....
- US Inflation 2nd wave is accelerating (not to mention the 2020's Inflation wave is the worst in US history)
- VIX is near all time lows (flagging general complacency)
- The US personal savings rate fell -0.6 percentage points in April, to 2.6%, the lowest since June 2022. This marks the 3rd consecutive monthly decline for a cumulative drop of -1.7 percentage points.
- BlackRock ETF sold $1,410,000,000 worth of Bitcoin this month.
You get it right? I have concerns about the overall timing of these massive IPO's and the health of the underlying markets overall.
Concerns
NASDAQ bent rules to allow listing in 5-days instead of usual 90-days. (put another way - Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5.) Why this matters, money from 401(k) and passive funds can purchase SpaceX at a higher price(s)..
Summary
Roughly $3.7Trillion valuation coming to market, can the market really support that much supply of new tech stocks all at the same time? Or do we get SpaceX coming to market then a massive selloff? I do NOT know! This is NOT financial advice just pulling together what I am feeling and seeing.
DYOR!
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