We are in the balance sheet period in the United States. So far, bank balance sheets have mostly arrived. They brought good balance sheets. JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, City Bank, Bank of America balance sheets were strong. There are some problems on the credit side. We see that the problems grow in credit collections, especially consumer loans, credit cards, as is normal in a slowing economy. On the other hand, especially in the second quarter, since the stock markets in the United States were very lively, it was like that in the third quarter, as you know. They did a lot of trading, buying, selling, stocks, commissions, they brought good balance sheets thanks to that and we read from them that America is on a soft landing journey. On the other hand, the balance sheets coming from other parts of the world were not super auspicious.

For example, on Tuesday, the balance sheet of the LVMH group, which owns Louis Vuitton, came. It was a very bad balance sheet. We saw that they had great difficulties in sales in China and Japan and on Tuesday, the ASML balance sheet came, which shook the markets a lot. ASML is a Dutch company that produces these giant lithography machines used in microchip production and there is a serious decrease in sales. The main reason for the decrease is the embargo applied especially to China. America has banned the sale of many microchips and microchip production devices to China. Since the Netherlands is not a fully independent country, it complies with America's ban. It also hit ASML hard. When it hit ASML hard, it also badly affected the microchip sector, including all artificial intelligence companies.

The real big balance sheets have not arrived yet. The Magnificent 7, that is, America's 7 largest technology companies, Netflix used to be included, they took it out and bought Tesla. They may have regretted it. Unfortunately, Tesla's because its stock performance has not been good at all in the last 3 years. Netflix's balance sheet is coming this week. It is an important balance sheet because the reaction to Netflix's balance sheet affects the general flow of the markets. The Magnificent 7, America's 7 largest technology companies are Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta and Amazon. These have actually been driving the bull rally of the American stock market for the last 2 years. We have been in the rally for 2 years, and we are now in the third year. We did not start the third year very well, but let's see what will happen, and for example, while the S&P 500 index increased by 22% in 2024, the increase of the Round Hill Magnificent 7 etf, which includes them, reached 42%.

But things did not go well in the third quarter. They lost 1.3% in value in the third quarter. The losses, especially from Nvidia and Amazon, were tiring here. Tesla actually did well this quarter. Tesla started the fourth quarter badly right now. In the meantime, the market had actually increased by more than 1%. In other words, these seven companies dragged America from October 2022 to the end of the second quarter of 2024. Now things seem to be going a little crazy and new balance sheets are coming. Now I will try to tell you about Wall Street expectations regarding those balance sheets. How did the stock behave after the balance sheet in past balance sheets? I will share some interesting statistics about this and then I will present my own views. How the Magnificent 7 will go has a great impact on the American stock market. I think it would be useful to take a closer look.

I have prepared a presentation for you according to the balance sheet announcement dates. Alphabet is coming on October 22nd, it is the first major stock. Google, as we know it, has a 70% earnings per share success rate so far. In other words, the ratio of what the market predicted to what was announced is very successful in this respect. Its sales success rate is 74%. In other words, it has always achieved its targeted sales so far. When I look at FactSet, 46 out of 58 Wall Street analysts currently give buy or strong buy ratings. The average target price is 22.5%. Alphabet is the worst performing company this year. The market did not like what they did in the artificial intelligence game for a while. Now they are facing a monopoly lawsuit in America. They are having trouble because of this. I wonder if there will be an attack from artificial intelligence on search engines. Let me tell you for myself, I use a lot of artificial intelligence instead of a search engine.

All of these things left the stock's performance a little low. That's why Wall Street is hopeful that there may be a 22.5% increase from here. Its performance in the third quarter was - 8.8%. When we look at the analysts' view, Alphabet shares lost value in the third quarter due to the lawsuits filed regarding monopolization. However, analysts think that Alphabet will continue its long-term growth with artificial intelligence and cloud services. In other words, Alphabet is a very big power in artificial intelligence and cloud services. It is a business with incredibly high profit margins. Its side businesses such as YouTube are also huge. But there are these kinds of pressures on it. From what I see, if the numbers are good in the balance sheet period, which is usually entered with pressures, the stocks can move upwards nicely. This is the case with Alphabet. I have no investment in Alphabet.

The second Tesla balance sheet will come on October 22. It upset Tesla investors last week. Because they actually had a great demo day where they explained future technology. But they were punished for not explaining enough details. Tesla's target hit rate in earnings per share is 61%. Its target hit rate in sales is 70%. This is actually normal. Because it already discloses how many vehicles it has sold before. Accordingly, it is not very difficult to estimate the sales target. Analysts' evaluations are quite negative. Only 22 out of 54 analysts say buy or strong buy, according to FactSet. Analysts also expect a decrease in price, not an increase, around 1.6%. Tesla's performance was very good in the third quarter, it actually increased by 32.2%. But we were affected quite badly this quarter, it fell by 8% after the demo day. It had fallen there before that. The stock is about 10% behind this quarter.

Analysts' opinion; Tesla showed a strong performance in the third quarter. However, the stock price fell because the robotaxi introduction did not meet expectations. Analysts think that Tesla's aggressive price cuts will put pressure on profit margins and that there is limited growth expectation in the near term. There is a need to make a correction here. They did not make many price cuts during this period, but they opened various financing options. There is a view in the market that this will also put pressure on profit margins. I agree with the views, Tesla continues to cause pain. We hope that Elon Musk will explain the things he did not explain in the demo day during this balance sheet period. In other words, where are they really in artificial intelligence? When will the production of Robotaxi really start? What are the performance levels currently achieved in artificial intelligence? Where is the performance going in Tesla Semi, that is, the truck tractor, Tesla Cybertruck, that is, that pickup truck?

Another very curious issue is that Tesla promised us a cheap car that we can use ourselves, that is not a robotaxi. There was nothing about it at that Robo Day. I wonder if there will be a statement about it, we will wait a little longer. Otherwise, it is clear that the balance sheet will not be super bright. The good side of the balance sheet is that there is an increase in car sales in Tesla. There are sales declines in all European manufacturers. Tesla is strong in this respect. Tesla is still successful in China, but when we look at Tesla as just an automobile company, it is a very expensive stock. What interests us will be these statements. Unfortunately, the details were not enough at the demo day. I read an interesting rumor today.

Tesla actually made preparations for Elon Musk to explain these things at the Demo Day. Elon Musk gave up at the last minute. I don't know why he gave up. Sometimes Elon Musk wonders if the Chinese will copy us. Maybe he gave up on that or he was just in his head that day, I don't know. But the stock took a good beating. I am also anxiously entering the report on October 23. I am longing for Tesla, but there seems to be some trouble in the short-medium term. I hope Elon satisfies us with his statements. There are no major surprises on the balance sheet side.

The third important balance sheet is Amazon's coming on October 24. I also have an investment in Amazon. Amazon is also one of those that did not do very well in this last quarter. The target of 64% in terms of earnings per share is quite successful. Around 70% in sales. Analysts are positive about Amazon and I am one of the positive ones. Because Amazon's stock has not done very well so far and I think it remains cheap. In other words, it seems to me to be the cheapest stock among the Magnificent 7, along with Google. According to FactSet, 63 out of 67 analysts gave buy or strong buy. An average price increase of 18% is expected. This is of course expected in a year. That's how Wall Street analysts make their one-year estimates. It is thought that there is an upside potential in the stock of around 18%. It performed very poorly in the third quarter, 3.6%, and the fourth quarter is not going very well so far.

Analysts' opinion; Amazon had a difficult quarter due to slower growth in the retail business and weak guidance, i.e. future expectations. However, analysts trust the growth potential of Amazon Web Service, which is Amazon's main profitable division, and the company's long-term investment strategy. I think about Amazon as follows; Amazon is a very central player in this whole artificial intelligence and robotics revolution. It can increase its own business a lot by using artificial intelligence. It can offer better services and better products to its customers. It can increase its sales performance. It can increase its efficiency in the back, in the warehouse, by using robots. It can manage its logistics better.

So I think Amazon is at the center of this. But unfortunately Wall Street doesn't have much love right now. It's positive for the future. We'll see, I'm also long on Amazon. It's my favorite right now and one of the companies that will benefit the most from the artificial intelligence revolution. By the way, there's also Walmart pressure on Amazon. Walmart is taking great steps from being a more traditional player to becoming a digital player. It's already transformed into a stock that I really like and that I have in my portfolio. I think they're doing a good job of transforming from a traditional retailer to a technology one. Amazon is also affected by this a little bit.

I have a love-hate relationship with meta. I bought the options when it dropped to $80. I sold it at $300, unfortunately. It's been going up since then. The stock has approached $600. Mark Zuckerberg is running the company very well. I don't like him at all. I see him as one of the most dangerous people in America. But we have to give him credit. He's running the company very well. It's reflected in all the numbers anyway. The earnings per share success rate is 88%, and the sales target achievement rate is 88%, which is incredible. Among analysts, 61 out of 69 analysts give buy or strong buy. However, it seems a bit weak where it can go up in a one-year term. Because it came very strong, the stock increased by 13.6% in the third quarter. It has probably increased by close to 60-65% since the beginning of the year, I don't remember the exact numbers.

Strong, they talked about their very nice projects for the future. What they are doing about artificial intelligence is very nice, what they are doing in augmented and virtual reality glasses is very right, it is a company on the right track. It uses artificial intelligence effectively to grow both its own business, namely advertising business via social media. It is also spreading to new areas. I like Meta very much. I don't know what the reaction will be after the balance sheet since its price is not cheap. Because, as you know, we always experience this, a very strong balance sheet is coming but the stock may fall. Because many things are already priced in up until that point and people come to take profit and if it is not much higher than expected, in other words if it is not at the expected level, they may sell.

I think Meta may also have such a risk. But, for those who hold it for the long term, it will not be a problem. It is a company doing well. Analysts also think like this; It showed a strong performance in 2024. It continued to grow especially in the field of artificial intelligence and advertising. Meta's spending on AR/VR technologies excites investors in the long term. They say these may not have much growth potential in the short term. Although there are sales of those glasses and so on, but their impact is small. I am more excited. I agree with the analysts on this subject.

Our next stock is Microsoft. It will also report on October 30. The target hit rate in earnings per share is 81%. The target hit rate in sales is 76%. 54 out of 58 analysts give buy or strong buy according to FactSet. It also has a lot of potential upside, around 18%. Microsoft had a bad last quarter. Microsoft is doing many things right. The most anticipated thing is what analysts are waiting for its performance on Azure, or the cloud. I am also very curious about what will happen on the artificial intelligence side. Because Microsoft has started selling its artificial intelligence products to institutions right now, Copilots. We didn't see much of that on the balance sheet last quarter. Will we see something better in this, will there be better explanations, the market is waiting for this from Microsoft. I have Microsoft in my portfolio to some extent. This is a stock that I consider a defensive stock. Because it always shows a certain performance. It can hold its own and protect itself in the days of severe fluctuations in the stock market. If you have a large technology portfolio, I think it is quite reasonable for Microsoft to have a place there.

October 31 Apple. Of course, the balance sheet is very important. In the past, Apple used to be the most important balance sheet. It would come last. Now it is not so important. Because Nvidia took its place. But Apple is still a valuable company. It is still the most valuable company in the world right now. It is ahead of Microsoft and Nvidia, but the race continues. Apple is very good. The profit per share ratio is 89%. The sales success ratio is around 79%. 35 out of 48 analysts give buy or strong buy. The average target price increase potential is around 4.6%. It showed a very good performance in the third quarter. We also benefited from this. Apple is a stock that I also have. I have always liked and continued to buy and collect them since they were around $160-$170. Now I have stopped buying them a bit, slowed down, but I still like them.

What excites me about Apple is that it will enable mobile phones to merge with artificial intelligence. It introduced the Pro 16 in this regard. Although the first reactions were not so great. Everyone says that these phones are now all similar. They are right, but what they can do with the chip for artificial intelligence excites the market and they wonder if a new sales growth cycle can come. It also introduced very nice new products on the wearable technologies and watches side. We are waiting to see what happens from there. Unfortunately, Apple is trying to make us forget about virtual reality glasses for now. It did not develop as quickly as I expected.

The problem there is that the glasses are very expensive and have low sales. Therefore, software developers do not come and develop new applications for them, and when we compare it with the Meta Store, the games and applications that Quest 2s and Quest 3s can reach with Meta glasses are far above Apple's. Therefore, the product has stalled a bit. A cheaper, more effective new version needs to be released. Apple always knows how to make a profit and create cash flow. It has had a problem of not growing for a long time. I wonder if strong growth can come again. We will see that together. Thanks to the glasses, I am positive about Apple, but it is not a short-term stock that I am very excited about, to be honest.

Nvidia is coming to the balance sheet on November 14th. Everyone is both scared and excited about Nvidia. Nvidia's past performance is very successful. Earnings per share ratio is around 85%. Target hit rate in sales is 86%. Currently, 58 out of 64 analysts give buy or strong buy according to FactSet. It is really interesting that such a strong buy is given to the price level it has reached. We are at $130, that is, we saw a 144 at the peak. After that, we dropped to the 90s and then came back. It is the biggest stock in my portfolio right now, Tesla and Palantir come right after it. Its third quarter performance was a bit weak. It started the fourth quarter well until Tuesday. It fell with ASML on Tuesday. Now there are many questions about Nvidia. Will it be able to maintain this growth? The company has grown tremendously so far, will this continue? How will the new generation chip Blackwell chips go? In other words, Jensen says in various statements that we have completed the next 16 months of sales at Blackwells, but people are still afraid of this.

Also, these bans on microchips are important. Due to the political tensions between the US and China, there may be difficulties in the sales of certain chips, devices such as ASML, which produces chips, to China. These are some of the tense issues. I think Nvidia will meet all its targets again. I think Jensen will make a great presentation again. But it is difficult to know how the stock will behave. They brought a tremendous balance sheet in the last quarter. However, since the numbers have grown so much, the growth rate has slowed down a little, and the stock market punished it severely. I don't know if such things can happen again. I think we are at the very beginning of the artificial intelligence game at Nvidia in the long term.

Yes, this is the case with companies. I would also like to give you another interesting set of statistics. I wonder how the stocks of these companies behave after the balance sheet, what are their habits. For example, when we look at Microsoft, there is a 58% increase after the balance sheet. Apple is also rising with a 58% probability. Nvidia is rising with a 58% probability. In other words, they looked at all past balance sheet periods. They analyzed the behavior after the balance sheet, but for example, Nvidia had fallen very badly in the last quarter. In other words, there is no guarantee. These are just the rates. Tesla is a troubled company in this regard, it is rising with a 48% probability. Tesla is falling most of the time. For example, it was interesting that Tesla had a very bad balance sheet in the second quarter, but it rose incredibly.

In other words, it is really difficult to predict how these things will go. Alphabet is rising with a 55% probability again. Amazon has a performance similar to Tesla, it is rising with a 49% probability. The probability of Meta rising is 55%. I say these are probabilities, but of course past statistics are not determinants of the future. Therefore, my advice to you is as follows; If you really like these companies, instead of trying to trade for the balance sheet period, see the balance sheet period as a report card. If you like what you see in the report card, continue to be an investor, continue to buy, and continue to collect. If you don't like the report card, get out of the way of both the numbers and the explanations.

What we call balance sheet day trading, that is, trades can be made on the balance sheet for the future. I do it from time to time, but these are a bit like gambling. Because first, we don't know how the balance sheet will come. Second, we don't know how Wall Street will react to the balance sheet. Maybe some information is leaking to the big players in this options market about how the balance sheet will come. Although there are such possibilities, I think what longer-term investors like us should look at is the company's report card on the balance sheet. Looking at whether everything is going well or not.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.