The political and indeed military tension between Pakistan and India dates back to 1947-1948. Here, we see that the first seeds of war between India and Pakistan regarding the sharing of the Kashmir region were sown in 1947, and we see that the war was stopped by the intervention of the United Nations and that the Kashmir problem between the two states has continued to this day. Of course, although there was no definitive peace here, the balance established by the United Nations has continued to this day. But somehow, both India still sees Kashmir as its own territory and of course Pakistan had made a proposal to hold a referendum, a plebiscite in Kashmir and for the people of the region to live on whichever side they wanted to join. The generally independent Muslim people in the region also show their views or sides towards Pakistan. But ultimately, India's current geoeconomic power and geopolitical power, and of course the United States and Russia behind it, and of course China, although they have certain conflicts at certain points, are trying to maintain the balance in its favor as a great hegemonic power here.

Now, of course, the important thing here is this: As you know, countries entered into a nuclear arms race after World War II, and the nuclearized world actually became an argument that prevented major wars, which we call deterrence. But nuclear armament somehow brought the balance of terror to us. We see this both in the form of Russia, the United States and other nuclear states... But now, we see that two countries that share a border and have a geographical problem such as the Kashmir issue that continues to this day, also have nuclear weapons. One is India, the other is Pakistan. Now, would this be a driving force for these two countries that have nuclear weapons to enter a major war? Or would it cause the two countries to be more cautious in terms of not entering a war?

When we look at it, the Kashmir issue, especially with its religious and national political dimensions, is still in a state that remains unresolved today. We see that the Kashmir issue is also on the agenda in some way, either at the basis of today's India-Pakistan conflicts or under every heading. Now, as you know, China has a traditional global competition with India. It would be ambitious to call this a rival cooperation. But it would also be ambitious to state that they are in a warlike position. There is a balance between them and I honestly think that this balance is formed due to natural conditions. You may ask, "Where?" As you know, there are those great Himalayan mountains between India and China. The Himalayas, which we consider to be the most powerful and largest mountains in the world, are there.

Now, if the Himalayas were not between them, perhaps India and China could have historically fought great wars. But they did not due to these geographical features. We see that this competition continues through other means, or rather through other blocks. Of course, the Russian factor is also important here. We can say that the relations between Russia and China, Russia and India also affect the relations between China and India. Today, the struggles are no longer on the front lines. In other words, they are not implemented through the symmetrical, open warfare we know, but through mixed warfare methods. One of the most important arguments, or rather one of the apparatuses of these, is trade wars. The initiative we call the New Silk Road, as you know, was announced by Xi Jinping in 2013 and this New Silk Road consists of both sea, land, air and rail silk roads.

The maritime silk road may be the most important in China's economic strategies. Because as you know, 90% of world trade is still carried out by sea and China is making major investments on its way to becoming a major maritime power. Now, at this point, the importance of relations between China and Pakistan comes to the fore. One of the most important areas of cooperation between China and Pakistan is the cooperation platform they have established on commercial routes. The route for this is the highway project that extends from China's Kashgar region, namely East Turkestan, to Gwadar Port and thanks to this highway, the goods that reach Gwadar Port by road will be opened to the world from here via the maritime silk road route, which we call the silk road. Now, this economic cooperation between Pakistan and China is actually reflected in their politics and it should not be forgotten that China will do its best to not let Pakistan be a bait at the table of other countries, in simple terms.

In the conflict between India and Pakistan, we definitely need to include China in this equation. There is also the fact that China has established a new economic platform with Russia, which is actually a situation that supports China more and serves China's interests more, and this mutual cooperation has created a situation that actually supports China more and serves China's interests more, and in this sense, it is also causing some cooperation windows to open between India and Russia so that a balance policy can function healthily. What was one of the most important agreements of this? This is also one of the important projects of the past years. The Vladivostok-Chennai economic corridor project. In other words, a ship departing from the Russian port of Vladivostok will dock at the Indian port of Chennai and unload its goods. Similarly, ships departing from Chennai will go to Vladivostok, and even further, they will enter Russian ports in the Arctic geography.

Now, this cooperation line makes Russia more profitable. Russia-China-India-Pakistan. Now, when we put this geopolitical image and map in front of us, I think we should interpret regional conflicts accordingly. As you know, the latest incident was the attack on April 23 in the Pahalgam town of Jammu-Kashmir, India, in which 26 tourists lost their lives, and India claimed that Pakistan was behind this terrorist attack, but Pakistan categorically denied these claims and said that it was a false flag operation. Now, these mutual claims are not definite. Did Pakistan do it or did another terrorist organization do it? We do not have definite information in this sense at the moment. But most importantly, in my opinion, there is an Indus Water Treaty signed in the 1960s. Now look what India did after the attack? It immediately cut off diplomatic relations. It suspended the Indus Water Treaties. It canceled the visas given to Pakistani citizens. It closed the Attari-Wagah border gate and deported Pakistani diplomats.

In other words, it completely cut all ties between itself. Was it something that needed to be done or was it an excuse for India? In order to sever these connections, these ties with Pakistan. So what did Pakistan do? Of course, it also cut off visas for Indian citizens based on the principle of reciprocity. It closed its airspace to India. It suspended trade relations and most importantly, perhaps because it suspended the Indus Water Treaty, it considered this a "casus belli", that is, a cause for war. Now, the Indus Treaty is historically one of the most important water basins of Pakistan's agricultural resources and India has stated that the water it has given to Pakistan with this treaty will be cut off because these Indus waters originate in Indian territory. But those waters also meet 80% of Pakistan's agriculture. In other words, the Indus waters meet 80% of the water used in agriculture. What does this mean? It means dragging Pakistan into a major social and economic disaster, and even a major humanitarian disaster.

So, can precautions be taken against this? So, in return for what, will India say "I will return to these Indus water agreements"? Or will it try "No, this agreement is over, let it be whatever it may"? We are currently talking about the possibility of a war that will concern the future of the Indo-Pacific. Perhaps, since the Kashmir issue, we are very, very close to the hottest days that will be experienced between India and Pakistan. If the water issue is on the table, then war is even closer. We need to be careful. But here, I think Russia will step in, China will step in, and the trade corridors that I mentioned to you a moment ago, because, as you know, money determines the paradigm, it also determines the parameter. I think that a balance can be achieved between India and Pakistan due to these trade interests. But with each passing period, the hot war getting closer to each other may also lead us to the fact that two nuclear states can enter a hot war position with a single spark.

Will Afghanistan be involved? I do not think Afghanistan will be very involved. Because, as you know, Russia recently decided to open its embassy in Afghanistan. It said that it would increase its cooperation with the interim Taliban government in the region. Likewise, China, as you know, on the very first day, when America first withdrew from the region, China declared, "We will continue our diplomatic relations, also with the Afghan administration." So there is Russia, there is China, there is America, there is India, there is everyone in Afghanistan. I do not think that Afghanistan will get involved in such a war of its own free will or with its own administrative structure. Maybe the Taliban government can play a calming role in this sense? In terms of not spreading this fire in its own region or not spreading the war in this sense. But let me open another parenthesis here.

The Fergana Valley, just like the Indus region, is a region with more valuable and important water resources than the Indus. Fergana and Fergana are in the middle of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, in other words, the most critical artery. If the issue of Indus waters through India and Pakistan can be one of the most important reasons for the war between India and Pakistan, then we also need to think about whether the water resources in the Fergana Valley will cause a new war in the near future.

Modi had anti-Islamic rhetoric. Of course, we all know Modi's stance. He has been the prime minister of India for a long time and there is a very significant Muslim population in India, and just like in East Turkestan, we also see various double-standard and harsh interventions, oppression, especially social violence and oppression in terms of freedom of worship against Muslims in India. At this point, it is perhaps difficult to say right now how much the double-standard policy will affect Modi's own political future. But in India, somehow, or rather, in order to prevent the Modi government's own social explosion, it can use the majority Hindu population that it holds as an instrument or a mechanism of pressure on Muslims.