Markets in America were mixed. Biden said he would not participate in the elections. If you are in such a bad situation that you cannot participate in the elections, how you manage the country, the world's largest superpower, the world's largest nuclear power and military power is also a matter of debate. On the other hand, Biden's resignation from candidacy was also a bit strange. He just shared a post on Twitter. He did not explain this in a live broadcast. In fact, his signature is a digital signature and there is no presidential seal. This caused a lot of gossip. At the time of his candidacy resignation, he did not say who he would nominate to replace himself. In a tweet he sent 20 minutes later, he said, "I am nominating Kamala Harris as a candidate." This caused quite a bit of controversy. I wonder if Biden really tweeted? He says he's had Covid for a while, he says he's sick. I wonder if consciousness has completely shut down. Did someone tweet instead? There was quite a bit of confusion. But we will look ahead.

Of course, we will see what happens in the stock markets. I mentioned before that the markets may perceive the change in the candidate opposite Trump negatively. Because we were certain that Trump would win until last week, and Trump is generally positive for the markets. Yes, some of his statements about microchips and Tesla caused some confusion in the markets last week, but I think these are election speeches, they do not matter much in the long run. Trump was more positive, now of course there are concerns about whether the candidate who will replace Biden can defeat Trump. The fact that Harris was the candidate put forward by Biden reassured the markets. We have already seen this in Bitcoin, it fell so hard, Bitcoin dropped to around 66500 - 67000 and down to 65000. Then it bounced back quickly when Harris was announced. Because it is thought that Harris cannot beat Trump.

The criticism of Harris is basically that she hasn't done anything in the last 4 years, when she was vice president. Actually, she is a lawyer, a respected lawyer, but she is not even liked by black people. Because, while she was a prosecutor, she put many black people in prison for marijuana use, which is now decriminalized in America. She is a somewhat antipathetic lady, frankly, and seems to have no views on foreign policy or the economy. Se likes dancing more. In this respect, she is not a very important candidate, and currently, betting sites say that Trump will easily defeat Harris. Of course, you never know, there are only 3 and a half months until the election. It remains to be seen what will happen, but there was an interesting development yesterday and Obama did not endorse Harris.

Endorsing Obama tweeted after Biden's candidacy resignation, he said thank you to Biden for helping the democratic process work, and then he added, he said, we believe the Democrats will run the right process for the right presidential candidate. There is a big Democratic Party Convention meeting in August. There, the candidate will actually be determined. Biden can only make one suggestion. Of course, the delegates will decide who will replace him, and Obama's statement was quite interesting. He did not endorse Harris. There are supporters from the party, but Obama is not one of them, and it is still known within the Democratic party that Obama is very strong.

What does it mean. Obama may have another candidate in mind. Obama may think about his wife, Michelle Obama, we don't know about that either, and on the other hand, maybe he may do this just to create the perception in the citizens' minds that we are a democratic party and this cannot be done with such appointments. Maybe Obama would prefer to at least play the part of operating such an internal democracy. I don't know about that either, but in any case, the markets will definitely be confused by this news and the fluctuations will become harsher in the coming days. Memorizers were happy with last week's declines. There are losses in the S&P 500 and losses in the Nasdaq. He already predicted some of this, frankly, the loss in Nasdaq is a little beyond what I expected. The trouble with crowdstrike on Friday added to this. That's why Nasdaq performed worse than it should have.

But basically the stock markets went up. We understand this from RSP. When we look at RSP equal-weighted S&P 500, normal S&P 500, stocks such as Nvidia and Apple have a very large share there. So they do not have equal weight, they have greater weight. On the other hand, when we look at the equally weighted RSP, we see that the increase is actually 2.11%. So the stock markets did not fall in total. In fact, the stock markets rose in total, but places have changed. IWM, small stocks rose 6.69%, Nasdaq moved lower. But overall, the stock market actually went up, except for Friday. With crowdstrike on Friday, morale went down a bit. Also, these days, people do not want to invest in stocks on the weekends.

Now this political change seems to complicate things a bit. That's why I expect a very volatile market. Frankly, it is very difficult to determine the direction right now. Until this uncertainty disappears and it becomes clear who will face Trump, Trump is against a very strong candidate, and whoever comes against him is likely to win. Let me say that the markets loved the gentleman he chose as vice president, and they loved him to a great extent. That's why Trump is a strong candidate. But of course the democrats are not picking pears either. In America, Democrats frequently surpass Republicans in total votes. There are 7 important states there. Democrats need to find a candidate whose votes change every election and will influence the region. From what I see, Harris is not a candidate who will make a change there. Maybe he can make it in Michigan, but I predict Trump will be ahead in the remaining 6 states. But we will see what Obama says, it is certain that the market will be confused.

In this context, it is useful to mention Tesla and Bitcoin. Tesla's balance sheet comes out tomorrow evening after the close. Technically, Tesla is in a very stuck place right now. As you know, it rose from 140 dollars to 270. It is currently down to 240. It is not easy to determine where to go from here. But at least we can read what's coming on the balance sheet. When it came to Tesla, Elon Musk did not remain calm again and criticized Harris. On the other hand, he switched back to the laser-eyed form in his profile photo. As you know, laser eyes are a structure that bitcoiners love. I also had laser eyes at one time and something that implied that bitcoin would rise, I love bitcoin. I don't know if Elon Musk meant this, but bitcoin jumped up like this at that time, we saw 68000. We'll see what he does when he's backed off a bit.

The second important issue is that yesterday Trump gave a long speech about Elon Musk and Tesla. As you know, before, he said that electric cars will no longer be a necessity and that citizens should be free. He made a speech praising Elon Musk. I am not against electric cars, anyone can buy what they want. But he said it shouldn't become mandatory. I think this may support Tesla, which fell hard on Friday. The situation seems to be the same in the early market. Another interesting news regarding Bitcoin is that Trump is considering Larry Fink as his Treasury Secretary. Larry Fink is the CEO of Black Rock. Black Rock manages the world's largest fund of $10 trillion and also owns the largest bitcoin ETF. This again caused a lot of speculation in the market.

Now let me sum up, things are complicated, anything can happen. By the way, when I look at the technicals, we are at very critical points in both indices and stocks. We are either at critical supports or critical resistances. In other words, this is a week where there may be sharp upward or downward breakouts. It would be better to go a little calmer. So, I think our main issue has not changed. Inflation continues to fall. PCE index is coming this week too. It is the index that the FED attaches great importance to and I think there will be a positive index there too. The situation in technology companies is not bad at all, according to the balance sheets of the companies announced so far. TSMC, the world's largest microchip manufacturer, reported tremendous growth and profitability. Another good report came from Netflix.

Stock markets are currently trying to price in some political uncertainty. That's why the reactions were not very positive. Crowdstrike is a bit confusing and it's important to understand it. Crowdstrike is a cybersecurity company that wasn't hacked but they made an update error. I'm lucky, I've been a crowdstrike investor for a long time, but I sold it in time, it's pure luck, let me put it that way. I was trying to generate cash for these political uncertainties. In that context, I evacuated crowdstrikes. Should I buy it? It would be better to wait a little longer. Because lawsuits can be filed, courts can be opened. It would be useful to watch the process a little more. Because what really happened was not a trivial thing. The whole world is in conflict. Airlines, security, 911 services in America, emergency services, all of these have problems.

So this is a problem that spreads to many places. That's why it's better not to rush. But this was an issue that pulled the stock markets back a bit on Friday. Sometimes clear direction cannot be given. There's no use giving a clear direction right now. But the main story continues. Inflation continues to go down. It is 100% that the FED will loosen interest rates. There is no debate on this issue. Only timing and size are discussed. These are generally positive news for the stock market. Trump still has a higher chance of winning. This is also positive news, but what is happening on the political side seems to affect everything and I think we may hear that Biden resigns from the presidency in the coming days.

Because if he's actually supporting Harris, I say really, because we haven't heard anything from Biden's mouth. There are only tweets about this. The tweets are probably managed by someone in the White House. As you know, he is not in the mood to tweet right now. So I'm not sure he supports Harris. But if he supports it, I also think that Biden will resign from the presidency and will give Harris the chance to rule the country for 2-3 months so that Harris can prove that she can manage things. Biden's resignation may cause even more confusion. Therefore, long or short is up to you, there is no change in long-term positions.

I am not currently opening a trade in the short term. Sometimes not winning may not matter. As long as we don't lose big. The stock market is trending slightly upward in the early market, which is positive at the moment. But where it will go depends on many discussions and fluctuations will continue in the short term. I thought that the fluctuations related to the elections would last until September and October. But the market is still a bull market. Bull markets are basically markets where bottoms are buying opportunities. However, in environments where political risks and uncertainties are high, it would be beneficial to remain calm.