The last bear hunt on Wall Street was 25 years ago, and now the new hunting season has begun. On August 27, 1999, Charles Clough, chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch, resigned. Clough, who had been a highly respected strategist until then, was forced to resign after being a loud bear during the market’s meteoric rise.
Now, Marko Kolanovic has suddenly left his job after 19 years at J.P. Morgan, reminding the market of the farewell he had 25 years ago. The problem is that not only Kolanovic was fired, but also Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley was forced to resign a few months ago. Trying to be a hero in a bull market on Wall Street and going against the herd is usually a gamble that ends with you losing all your credibility and reputation.
The bubble had begun to deflate in March 2000, and on April 3, the Nasdaq began its sharp decline and did not reach its peak until 2015. Today, we will see a repeat of this event at some point. In Chess and Markets, whatever you do in the middle phase, the most important issue is usually the endgame. We have currently entered the endgame in the markets and when the bears are shot one by one and their skins are hung on the wall, it is usually a clear sign that the endgame has begun. Secondly, the rise that came after the developments in artificial intelligence shows signs of a bubble. However, as far as I can see, what people still do not understand is that bubbles can generally inflate far beyond the limits of logic before they burst because the issue is about emotion and momentum.
The new peaks that I have been talking about for a long time have come many times and will continue to come. SP500 is moving at 5600 levels, but there is another 20% area ahead of us to reach dot-com-like levels. For now, these warning signs still do not pull my target below 6100-6200 and I think these planned targets are likely to come earlier than expected. The end of the hunt, that is, the game, will end with the last bear being hunted, so there is still a while. There may be a correction in the market, but it is useful to remember that this will still be a buying opportunity and that we are in the most explosive phase of the rally. Nasdaq raised its target above 24,000.
The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.