For the first time, we witnessed a country selling all its financial assets on a global scale out of fear of a person. The most well-known safe havens, the US Dollar and US bonds, saw sales despite the risks.

But things started to return to normal a little starting last week. As the tension in international trade began to ease, US assets suddenly started to gain value. After consolidating for about 2 weeks following the shock sales, stock indices are starting to move upwards this week. Interest rates are falling with purchases in the bond market. But the dollar index is still not very sure about what is happening, it cannot react upwards. To tell you the truth, China called the US's bluff and raised its hand, and from now on, the only direction on the table seems to be the side of shrinking the hand.

In this case, the market that wants to buy goods will probably try to push the stock market up. But let's not make a mistake! The risks in the US market are still downward. We will most likely see a contraction in public employment due to the DOGE department in the employment market. In the private sector, we can think that layoffs will increase, starting with small-scale companies.

According to the confidence surveys conducted by regional Feds last week, investors' confidence in the economy is at its lowest levels in recent years.

Then, it doesn't seem right to buy stocks in the US and expect new highs. Now, we have a rally environment ahead of us, a little up, a little down, at most 2 weeks. The best thing to do is to complete the surfing of this wave by taking positions mainly in technology stocks during this period. But when the wave ends, you need to get to a safe boat immediately because there are sharks below!

There is a concept that experts often check to see which way the supply/demand balance is trending in the commodity market. When you put the instant prices of contracts traded at different maturities on an x-y axis and combine them, you get a curve. We call this the term curve. According to this curve, it is said that the market is backwardation or contango. There is an interesting situation in the oil market right now.

Until just 1 month ago, the price of the short term in oil was high and this situation continued as all maturities moved forward. But now, especially until October/November 2025, while the near-terms are more expensive, the long-terms become more expensive afterwards. In other words, while it indicates a tightness in oil supply in the near term, it indicates excess supply in later terms.

If you want to put this into practice, it would not be a big mistake to think like this; there may be an upward movement in oil prices since the market expects tightness in the oil market in the short term. But most likely, the price will fall since there will be excess supply in the long term. If I had held a position in oil at that time, being on the buy side for the near term and on the sell side later seems quite logical according to the current pricing.

The options market can really provide such investment strategies. It is possible to use time and sequential price movements in one's favor with vertical or diagonal spread strategies, from buying in one term to selling in another.

There is also the issue of us being in the balance sheet period for US stocks. The balance sheets of technology giants such as Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are coming. I wrote above that I think the market is actually broken. But these technology companies can bring good balance sheets. But how can I do it?

Here options come into the equation once again, simply looking at the costs of these stocks, short-term call options can open various doors for investors with limited risk and high return potential. But remember, options require a high level of financial literacy. It can be dangerous to enter this sea without doing the preliminary work.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.