The world's eyes are on precious metals, and therefore, when we look at the indices, Trump's statements, which have now created a stigma in the market: Trump's statements, his tweets, have surpassed technical analysis. In other words, Trump is saying, "Look at the technical analysis as much as you like, but my tweets are superior to technical analysis." We're in that exact mode. Trump makes a statement, we rise; Trump makes a statement, we fall. We call this the "taco trade." This taco trade continues, and so, again, regarding China, he said, "I will impose 100% tariffs on China." The markets were in shambles. Then, as always, for some reason, it rebounded. Less than 48 hours later, it made an R. Both before and after Trump's arrival, the cryptocurrency's Trump image reversed dramatically in just one evening. Unfortunately, Trump is disrupting the balance. This was one of the longest candlesticks we've ever seen.
Nasdaq in an ascending channel, our daily chart. If you have a chart that you've always placed within a well-performing pattern in technical analysis, save it as a saved chart and continue reading the market from it. I'm continuing to monitor it within the ascending channel. The 55-day moving average continues to drag the channel from below. The decline on Friday, October 10th, remained within the channel boundaries. However, I'm a bull in the US, but I'm a somewhat cautious bull. There may be some correction here. The chart reached the bottom of the channel and then reversed with Trump's R sign. Since channel discipline remains generally intact, my specific target of 1.618 Fibonacci at 23540 in the US, my general strategic target, remains. There's even a target above 23540 on the Nasdaq. But I will continue to monitor this target, which I've been anticipating since the beginning of the year.
Trump's statements here suggest a sharp decline and a rebound with the same momentum on Monday, October 13th. As long as the 22,200-21,900 area can be maintained below, the correction remains within the technical limits of the upward channel, thus remaining within the correction range. What does this mean? We can expect this volatility to continue for a while longer. In other words, this 600-point band between 22,800-22,900 above and 22,200 below may be somewhat volatile. In other words, we could see a buzzsaw-like movement in the Nasdaq, where it might break out, then get disturbed by something the next day and then rebound. But generally speaking, October is ending, November and December remain. There are roughly 2.5 months left in the year. If the Nasdaq can contain all the negativity within the channel, especially without breaking the 55-day moving average of 21,900-22,200, perhaps this year, we'll see a long-awaited move towards 23,540 and back above the channel. It could remain above 22,900 for a few days, remaining roughly in the 21,900-22,000 range, and then, with the channel rising over time, it could reach the Fibonacci retracement of 1.618, reaching the 23,540 level. Personally, I'm in favor of a return scenario. Your scenario has been closed here. If you're wondering where you should manage your risk, my 23,540 target doesn't last until this year, considering the second close below 21,900. I'd say they've extended it a bit, and I'd continue to see a downward trend in the Nasdaq, heading towards 21,000. Otherwise, any pullbacks towards 22,200-21,900 won't disrupt the 23,540 target, in my opinion. However, we could see a period of struggle between 22,900 and 22,000 for about a week or 10 days.
There's a truly positive trend in AMD. The gap created by the recent investment news is a very sharp one. Now, in technical analysis, people are divided on whether these are breakout gaps or whether they will fill soon, or they are justifiably nervous. Whether this gap fills is crucial for those who have invested above the $200 threshold. Of course, a gap that remains at $170 can be somewhat daunting and frustrating for those who have invested above $200. However, the advice this chart offers me is this: As long as this chart stays above $195-202 in the short term, gap risk will be postponed. Don't be afraid to worry about whether the gap will fill. To determine if AMD is entering a gap, let's look for a close of 202 or 195. Unless this condition is met, the GAP could remain below as a breakout gap, which could quickly fill. In short, 195-205 can be monitored as a short-term hedge against the gap, and as a profit-taking stop-loss for those with high investment intentions.
For those riding the trend, my analysis is simpler and much clearer. AMD is currently above 200, and by the way, there's a significant margin there, but this trend above 172 and 159 will feed into the 268 short-term and 320 medium-term targets. I have a short motto here. Now, if we've got 268-320 on our radar, those who are currently trading above $200 at a price around 230 should say the following below 202 or 195: "We had a 268-320 target. But they're trying to fill the gap before we get there. They should say, 'I always keep my reserve deposit discipline in my left pocket.' Against the risk of 172-159, this chart shows that any pullbacks towards 172-159 will be a technically eroded price zone, and the 268-320 targets will be maintained." Here, the lower indicator says I went fast and need to rest, but positive news keeps coming in. Therefore, we can't know if this will be a breakout. The lower indicator is simply giving us this warning. If you bought at a level like 75, 80, 90, 100, 150, or 170, you've done a great job. But if you went and made a profit after the GAP, the lower indicator tells us you need to be a bit more controlled than those who made a profit at the bottom. If you bought this with the potential for short-term returns, you should be cautious below 195-202. It says you can continue to watch 268 unless these levels break. Of course, it's a bit excessive and steep. It would be good to rest a bit, but it's fueled by news. So, even if there's a correction there, the one you already have can wait, but new buyers should take that risk. The comfort of someone who has already made a profit in these types of gaps isn't the same as someone who has made a profit above the gap.
Salesforce experienced a significant rally in 2024. There was also a significant pullback from around $367. Looking at this, from mid-March or early April to the end of the year, there's roughly consolidation in the 270-280 range and the 220-230 range. Therefore, I can begin to summarize the chart by saying that Salesforce is forming a bottom. In this sense, I won't attach much importance to 242 in major markets, but I will attach importance to $226, and I will interpret a bottom formation above $226 as a positive sign. Therefore, I label $242 as minor intermediate support, and $226 as strong and significant support. Salesforce, particularly a weekly close above $253, will trigger a short-term trend toward 280 and 296, and even 313. I'm not saying this in the sense of suddenly gapping off like AMD, but I do have a position in Salesforce to help the process evolve upwards. You took a Salesforce position at 250-230. The chart is at the bottom, there's no momentum. Therefore, there's no trend.
What you should pay attention to here is this: If closes above 259 begin, confirmed within two days and reinforced this position on the weekly chart, there could be a potential for a near 20% premium towards 280-296, or even towards 313, the Fibonacci 61.8 retracement of the entire decline, in the short term. There's a bottom forming between 259 and 226. I also read this positively. Let's add a risk analysis to this analysis. Two stop-loss positions below 226. Because the chart and technical discipline could shift below 226, we need to hedge some risk there, or we need to break out of the potential target and protect ourselves. The chart, which remains above $242 and $226, is showing potential activity. It might not happen today or tomorrow, but if we're looking for a trigger and momentum, we can monitor closes above 259. For example, if you're a momentum trader, watch above 259. If you're not a momentum trader and prefer to look for opportunities, hold a position at the bottom of the hedge between 259 and 226. Start accumulating with discipline, placing a stop-loss below 226.
Gold per ounce is going parabolic. I say it's technically expensive, and it's going up again. This is the nature of parabolic movements. Parabolic movements are like Pacman, gobbling up all the cookies. The 8-day moving average is going well for now. Therefore, as long as gold remains above $4,010 per ounce, I believe there will be a spoiled phase towards the 4,400s. Long-term, I think gold could go above $4,400, or even above $5,000, but in the short term, no one can convince me that gold is cheap. Instead of buying gold, I'll go and buy DXY.
I'll either buy Bitcoin above 116,000 or wait for 95,000, whichever comes first. I have no bet on either. If I buy above 116,000, I'll buy it for a trade and place a stop-loss. If it falls to 95,000-92,000, I'll buy it for an investment. No price can rise or fall forever.
The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.
