I can say that the price of EURUSD, which is stuck in a narrow area in the 4-hour period, may continue its buying movement in a limited way in line with the reactions that may come from the 1.0886 demand area. In this case, 1.0948 levels stand out as an important seller area that should be followed closely. In terms of negative movements, the 1.0886 demand zone needs to be broken. In this case, closings below the zone may increase the decline potential towards 1.0840 levels. It will also be important to pay attention to the second-hand home sales data that will be announced during the day.
EURUSD parity is hovering around $1.0889 on the new day. I observe that there has been some withdrawal in the Euro-Dollar parity after the 1.0948 attempt seen last week. When we look at it as of July, I can also mention an upward movement of 1.63%. If DXY is priced in the range of 104.50 - 105 or even falls below 104, we can witness positive pricing in the EURUSD parity. I will be watching the Euro Dollar parity's efforts to hold on above the possible 1.0873 - 1.0887 region.
Pressure from sellers due to horizontal squeezes in GBPUSD caused the price to remain above the 1.2874 demand zone. Breaking this region may increase the dominance of bearish movements and lead to a decline towards 1.2781 levels. There is currently no clear signal in terms of optimistic scenarios. Therefore, the movement of the dollar should be followed closely.
In USDJPY, expectations that interest rate hikes in Japan will begin gradually lead to a strengthening of the yen and pressure on the parity. The 155.55 demand zone stands out as an important level where buyers were previously located. While short-term purchases are likely to be seen in this region, closings below the region may support the continuation of the trend downwards. In this case, it seems likely that the decline towards 154.271 levels will accelerate. The yen gained ground ahead of the BOJ's policy meeting next week. Some BOJ officials are willing to raise interest rates at the July meeting, but others believe sluggish consumer spending is making their choice difficult, according to people familiar with the matter.
The 2387.6 demand region, where medium-term pressures continue in ounce gold, continues to be challenged by the influence of sellers. If this region is broken, prices can be expected to accelerate towards the 2356.6 demand region. However, if the data flow from the USA weakens the dollar this week, the buying potential may remain above the 2387.6 demand area and an increase towards 2445.2 levels may occur. Additionally, it will be important to consider that US second-hand home sales data to be announced during the day may cause fluctuations in the market.
Ounce Gold is trading at $2391.59. All eyes will be on $2407.98 per ounce of gold, where I observed a -3.12% decrease in the last week. On the precious metal side, which I think will see pressure under the mentioned level, $ 2390 and $ 2375 levels can be brought to the agenda. I believe that in order for the positive trend to come to the fore, pricing above the 5-day exponential average of $2408 may be needed.
The 77.57 demand region, where the oil commodity is under negative pressure, continues its downward trend after OPEC's statements that it will not change its policy due to the pressures. If the 77.57 demand area is broken, prices can be expected to decline towards 75.81 levels in the medium term. However, if buyers step in, it may be possible for prices to rise towards 80.18 levels with short-term reactions. Therefore, it is important to follow price movements closely.
The recent expected buying movements in Bitcoin support pricing above the 63832 demand area. As long as this region remains above, the possibility of continuing the rise towards 73000 levels increases. In bearish scenarios, this zone needs to be broken; However, there does not appear to be such a risk at the moment. Particularly interest rate cuts in the USA and the upcoming presidential elections continue to support the upward trend of pricing.
The European Central Bank's statements that two more interest rate cuts will be made by the end of the year had a positive impact on the market and offered new sales opportunities. In DAX, the 18483 supply area stands out as an important area where sellers are concentrated. As long as it remains below this region, there is a potential for pricing to move towards the 18219 demand region. In terms of optimistic price movements, if the 18483 level is exceeded, a rise towards 18649 levels is likely to come to the fore.
European stock markets completed the first trading day of the week with an increase after President Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy in the US presidential elections. At the closing, the benchmark index Stoxx Europe 600 increased by 0.93 percent to 514.79 points. US President Biden announced in his statement that he withdrew his candidacy for the elections to be held on November 5 and supported Vice President Kamala Harris. The ratio of public debt to gross domestic product (GDP) in the Eurozone reached 88.7 percent in the first quarter of this year. The European Union (EU) decided to extend the period of economic sanctions imposed on Russia by 6 months. Shares of Ireland-based airline Ryanair fell nearly 17 percent after the company said its after-tax profit fell sharply in the second quarter.
While the short-term recovery in Nasdaq continues below the 19952 supply area, attention is turned to the balance sheet calendar to be announced next week. It seems likely that pricing will recover in the short term before the balance sheets to be announced by many technology companies. For this reason, exceeding the 19952 level will support the continuation of the buying potential towards 20302 levels. In terms of downward scenarios, possible reactions from the 19952 level should be closely monitored, and on the other hand, the dominance of horizontal compressions should be monitored towards the 19533 demand region.
Stocks and currencies rose in Asia as calm returned after political turmoil. Investors are focused on upcoming technology gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index reversed a three-day decline, supported by a rise in Taiwan stocks. US stock futures fell after a 1.1% gain in the S&P 500 ahead of Tesla and Alphabet reporting earnings on Tuesday. Asian currencies rose against the weakening dollar. Markets are taking a breather after skyrocketing valuations and sectoral rotation that triggered a massive tech sell-off in the last few sessions. As the US elections continue to dominate the headlines, Kamala Harris now has enough delegates to secure the Democratic presidential nomination, providing clarity on the matter.
The New York Stock Exchange completed the first trading day of the week with an increase. While there was a recovery in the technology sector, which suffered severe losses last week, a positive trend was observed in the stock markets on the first trading day of the new week. While the ongoing balance sheet season in the USA remains at the center of the markets, shares of Verizon, one of the country's largest telecommunications companies, lost more than 6 percent in value after its announced financial results failed to meet expectations. While companies such as Alphabet, Tesla, IBM, Visa, General Motors, Ford and Lockheed Martin are expected to announce their balance sheets throughout the week, the financial results of the companies are expected to increase stock and sector-based volatility.
On the macroeconomic side, this week's intense data agenda, especially growth, is in the focus of the markets. On the other hand, the decline in the shares of CrowdStrike, which caused a software problem affecting many sectors around the world with the update it released last week, continued on the first trading day of the new week. The company's shares fell 13.5 percent. Shares of chip maker Nvidia gained 4.8 percent following news that the company was working on a version of new artificial intelligence chips for the Chinese market that would be compatible with existing US export controls. This week's data calendar includes two important data such as growth and PCE inflation on the US side. I wish you good luck.
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