Stock markets are recovering after last week's interest rate decision. Many stock funds that reduced their risk in August's movements have started to buy back, but since the market is close to historical levels, they are also buying hedging options in addition to their call positions.
Market investors are repositioning their positions ahead of the US elections. Although volatility positions have become more expensive, there is an increase in the appetite for hedging. The Cboe VVIX Index, which measures the volatility of VIX options, which are usually used to protect against a sharp sell-off, has remained about 20% above its level since early June. And the Nations SkewDex, which measures the relative cost of put options in a downtrend, is also high.
Volatility Index call positions are being bought up to 85 and 90. In the last week, non-commercial net short VIX positions continue to move at their lowest levels since 2019.
I expect a reaction up to 101.50 on the DXY side, if the reaction I expect comes, there may be a sell-off up to 1.1050 on the Euro side. There may be a sell-off up to 1.3030 on the GBP side.
If there is no setback for NASDAQ this week, I expect an increase up to 20250. It should fall from 20250 to 19765. DAX should be 19250. It closed the week above 20000 on the futures side. I expect a correction to the 19800 - 19700 area this week and then a move to 20500. As long as 19500 - 19300 is not broken down, the bullish direction will continue, the main target price is 23000.
I expect a rise up to around 65400 on BTC. The main target that will take a short breath here will be 69000. I expect a profit realization from this point. Since the chart changed with a maturity of 49000 at the top, 65000 at the bottom and 57000 at the top became important. If we can get a 2-day close above 65000, we will probably go to the 85000 region with a single-month candle. While all global markets have entered the positive zone at the important support position of 57000 below, I do not think Bitcoin will be left behind. Those who follow altcoins should focus on the 65000 level, long green candles should be expected when it is passed. Important note, I think the altcoin rally will start with the rise to the left, not Ethereum.
I do not expect a correction or decline before the ounce gold 2670 - 2710 region. If there is no correction between these two levels, the rises will continue to the level of 2970. The money coming out of the bond continues to go into gold.
As long as the silver ounce remains above $ 27, $ 36 and $ 42 are targets. All declines up to the level of 29 are buying opportunities.
Brent oil moving average weekly crossovers current closing price of 74 - 82 dollars is the target of 60 dollars unless it is permanently exceeded. Every exit continues to be a selling opportunity.
Russel 2000 closed the week at 2250. Technically, all declines up to 2150 are buying opportunities. The target is 2500, the medium-term target is 3100.
USDJPY Let's not forget that Japan increased interest after 30 years. Since they have blown up 80% of their carry trade positions, there is no reason for usdjpy not to be 120 anymore. All exits up to the 151 region are selling opportunities.
The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.
