The US elections are coming to an end. Will Trump or Harris win? Investors are in a great panic. If Trump wins, he will impose tariffs. Will China collapse? If Harris wins, he will raise taxes. Will the value of large companies fall? There is a panic going on. However, in fact, no matter who wins the elections, nothing much will change. Here I am with data today. I will tell you that we should not panic. If you are investing in the American stock markets, which do not only affect America but the entire world. I will tell you why you should not be overly worried if you have a medium-long term investment perspective. But in the short term, things will definitely get messy today and tomorrow. If you are ready, let's go into the details of what awaits the stock markets after the elections and what awaits them during the elections.

If you are a long-term investor, the first question you should ask yourself is who the president is, whether he is a Republican or a Democrat, how does it affect the American stock markets. My answer is not at all. No matter which party the president comes from, the American stock markets tend to rise. They always rise by more or less the same amount. The only exception was the Bush era, but a lot of things happened during that period. The Enron scandal broke out, the banking crisis broke out, the Twin Towers were attacked, war broke out, it was a strange period. When we look at the periods when there were not many such incidents, the stock market continues to rise regardless of who the president is and which party they belong to. The most striking example is from the last three terms, first Obama, then Donald Trump, then Biden. Obama and Biden's policies were completely different from Trump's. It didn't matter at all, but the stock market continued to rise at about the same level during all three terms. This shows us that markets move according to broader economic fundamentals, technology, and innovation. What an individual president says doesn't really matter that much.

A second important issue is campaign promises and sector returns. Every president says they will support a certain sector more. Right now, like a typical Democrat, Kamala Harris says she will focus more on green energy. Trump says he will support traditional energy. This is what confuses the markets, wondering which sector will go up more. In the end, nothing changes. For example, if you remember the previous Donald Trump era, Donald Trump was actually quite against technology companies before the elections. Technology companies showed extraordinary performance during his term. On the other hand, Biden was against oil companies and traditional energy companies. We can say that they experienced their golden age during the Biden era. In other words, who the president is, has a very limited effect on what is happening in which sector. There are a few reasons for this. Presidents are not actually that powerful in America. Because there are senates and assemblies under them, they can be divided and from different parties.

Also, America is a federal state. Therefore, states have the authority to make independent decisions on many issues. If you squeeze a company or a sector too much, it flees from one state to another. Remember, like Elon Musk moving Tesla's headquarters from California to Texas. Therefore, the sectoral impact is also limited in the long term. So, are the two candidates' views on America's economy very different from each other? Actually, not very much. They both support monetary easing, they just think of easing from different places. Harris is supposedly saying let's help the poor and needy a little more and says let's make many services free for them. Let's collect more taxes from the rich and distribute more of this to the poor. Trump also says no let's not do such a thing. Large companies should pay less taxes so that they can invest more. This will increase employment in America. But both of them are based on monetary expansion and most likely neither of them will be able to implement these economic policies. Because so far the polls show us that neither the Republicans nor the Democrats will be able to come with full force. The Senate and the House will be divided. The president will be from a different party.

Also, due to this state system in America, members of a party in the Senate or the House do not act as a monolith. Each Senator can think about the priorities of their own state. Therefore, such radical tax policies do not emerge in America. Weapon policies do not emerge, such things do not happen. There are much smaller modifications. Therefore, our basic economic thesis does not change. America has to continue to expand money. Because America is in debt and both incoming presidents are in favor of expanding money. There is a small exception here. If Trump is elected, Elon Musk, as you know, will come with a duty like the Minister of Cost Reduction. He will try to shrink the public sector and reduce bureaucracy. He claims that he can reduce America's $8 trillion budget to $6 trillion. Of course, he is quite ambitious, this will change things a little. But I still think that even if Trump is elected, he will not have such power and he will not give such power to Elon Musk. Because a shrinkage of this size in the state can have very radical political and social consequences. I am not sure if Trump will take this risk. That's why there's a lot of talk before the elections. A much smaller portion of these will probably be put into action and will happen.

There's another issue that both candidates have in common, they're trying to turn America back into an industrial country. They're focused on de-globalization, that is, the end of globalization, and the return of production in China. Yes, this shows sectoral differences in terms of where they'll give more incentives, but it doesn't change the fact that America will invest in production in the coming period. More factories will be built. More infrastructure investments will be made. Again, there doesn't seem to be any change here. The two candidates think very similarly. On the other hand, what I've said of course shows the medium-long term situation. Today and tomorrow, the markets could be quite shaken if the election results don't come quickly, which is very likely not to happen. Because the counting speeds in America vary from state to state. For example, some states start counting mail-in votes immediately. Some count them on the last night. Especially in swing states, such as Pennsylvania, where the votes are very close to each other and can radically affect the election result, objections to the ballot boxes can be made for a long time. Therefore, the stock market predicts that the result may be delayed a bit. I think it will shake during this process and it will be quite volatile.

But when all this volatility is over, America will return to the same realities. They beat inflation, but the latest employment data gives strong signs of a recession in America. America is super indebted. America has to print more money to both beat the recession and roll over this super debt. On the other hand, technology companies are minding their own business. Artificial intelligence companies are minding their own business. There is no change on that side either. In other words, I do not think that anything that will change my investment thesis will come out of this election. In this context, I am not fundamentally changing any position. Maybe I can buy small hedges. It can be useful to play both sides against fluctuations in such periods. But I do not see anything that will change my investment strategy in the long term. Of course, I could be wrong. You should definitely take your own precautions. If you do not have a strong stomach and think that you will be greatly affected by fluctuations in the stock market, it may be useful to stay in cash a little longer.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.