We are in a period where the global economy, diplomacy, and investment trends are being reshaped. Recent developments indicate the emergence of a new pricing behavior not only in global financial markets but also in the crypto ecosystem. US President Trump's statement that the ongoing trade tensions with China are "unsustainable for both sides in the long term" is a significant signal of this process. This statement has reinforced expectations of a diplomatic detente between Washington and Beijing ahead of the APEC Summit in South Korea on October 31st. The meeting between the US Treasury Secretary and Trade Representative with the Chinese Vice Prime Minister in Malaysia solidified this signal.

The meeting addressed the US's planned high tariffs on Chinese imports and Beijing's restrictions on rare earth mineral exports, directly impacting global risk perception. The decline in diplomatic tensions has provided a temporary respite for the market. The increase in risk appetite has led to a recovery trend in crypto assets. The global cryptocurrency market capitalization fell to $3.72 trillion midweek, but stabilized at $3.84 trillion on October 24th. Bitcoin opened the week at $111,284, while Ethereum traded at $4,081. Cryptocurrencies that experienced midweek losses saw Bitcoin rise to $111,600 and Ethereum to $4,024 following lower-than-expected US inflation data. Spot ETFs, however, saw a mixed performance. Over $355 million inflows into Bitcoin ETFs last week, while Ethereum saw outflows of around $150 million. As investors repositioned themselves with cautious optimism, the concept of "risk management" in portfolios regained importance.

The most notable macroeconomic development was the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday, which had been delayed due to the lockdown. The figures were reported as 3.0% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month. Core CPI also rose slightly below expectations, rising by 3.0% year-over-year. This suggests that price pressures in the US are gradually easing. The market's interpretation is clear: the likelihood of a rate cut at the Fed's upcoming meeting is increasing. Lower-than-expected inflation is leading to expectations that global liquidity conditions may soften and the shift toward risky assets may increase. The global financial agenda in October was dominated by the US federal government's inability to agree on a budget and the resulting government shutdown. Although the new fiscal year began on September 30th, the Senate failed to pass interim budget proposals, and federal government agencies were forced to halt operations.

This situation not only affected hundreds of thousands of workers but also impacted global investors' risk perception. Some investors are positioning Bitcoin as "digital gold." During periods of government shutdowns, debt ceiling crises, or concerns about the value of the dollar, short- to medium-term interest in crypto assets can be observed. However, on-chain and market data suggest that this trend is sometimes limited. During times of major crises, crypto assets remain a risky investment due to high volatility, and institutional investors typically reduce their positions during these periods of uncertainty, while some may still turn to traditional safe havens like dollars, bonds, and gold. In contrast, crypto-friendly institutional investors and companies that include these assets on their balance sheets help offset fluctuations during these periods. By allocating a long-term strategic presence to Bitcoin and similar digital assets in their portfolios, these institutions can partially cushion the effects of market volatility.

Today, crypto markets have moved beyond being an integral part of the global financial system and have become a key driver. Digital assets are not merely an alternative investment but also a real-time indicator of global confidence, uncertainty, and expectations. While short-term fluctuations may occur, over the long term, every correction is part of a search for a new equilibrium. As the codes of global finance are being rewritten, crypto assets are no longer merely intertwined but now central to this narrative.