The world is aging. While people tend to reproduce less, especially with the developments in the field of health, the average life expectancy is also increasing. This causes the aging population problem to rise to the top of the world. While this problem is becoming chronic in developed regions such as Europe and Japan, it is only a matter of time before developing countries like us experience the same fate.
The aging of the population naturally means the aging of the workforce, meaning that the ratio of the working population to the total population decreases. When this happens, both the production capacity decreases and the social security systems of the countries sound the alarm. For some countries, migration is an inevitable solution to the aging of the workforce. This brings with it other sociological problems that need to be solved. On the other hand, it seems inevitable that the population over the age of 65 will join the workforce.
People aging more healthily and their life expectancy will increase, making this possible. The issue of healthy aging has also been one of the favorite topics of the recent period for the reasons I mentioned. The second section of the IMF April report that I mentioned in this column last week is devoted to this subject. “The rise of the silver economy”. There is interesting data. The situation is a bit scary.
The data shows that the change in this area is very rapid. In fact, the period when the world's population changes were seen most severely was the beginning of the industrial revolution. While the world population was at a constant level, it started to increase parabolically with the industrial revolution. Now we are coming to the end of that increase. Namely; while the annual population growth before Covid was 1.1%, this rate will drop to 0% between 2080-2100. The increase in average life expectancy is also striking. The difference between the average life expectancy in 2020 and the average life expectancy in 2100 will be 11.
The report mentions a concept called "demographic turning point". It means the point at which the ratio of the working population in the total population starts to decrease. While many developed countries have already passed this threshold, we will see that all of them have passed by 2035. The issue is not limited to developed countries. Underdeveloped countries will also come to this situation by 2070. The demographic window of opportunity is not with us forever, the fate that every country will face at the end of the day is similar.
Some more data on the aging of the world. For example, in Japan, the population aged 65 and over will reach 30 percent in 2025, and one-third of the total population will consist of elderly individuals. In European countries such as Germany, the elderly population will exceed 30 percent in 2050.
