Visiting the website tradingeconomics.com this morning, I'm pleased to report a significant drop in coffee futures, which hit an all-time-high of $4.30 on February 13. At time of writing, futures have dropped to $3.89 per pound, a slight reprieve.
Considering that a year ago at this time, coffee was at about $1.90 per pound, the price of coffee is now up by 100%. Dry conditions in Brazil continue to fuel high prices but worries are now setting in that these high prices might put a dent on consumer demand.
According to the International Coffee Organization (IOC), world exports of all forms coffee dropped by 13.3%. In January 2024, 12.488 million bags of coffee were sold compared to just 10.826 million bags for the same period in 2025.
Tradingeconomics.com also reports that green, unroasted coffee bean sales fell 14.2%, compared to January, 2024, the third consecutive monthly fall. Arabica bean exports dropped by 2.5%.
Arabica accounts for about 75% of all coffee production and mostly comes from Brazil (40% of total world supply). Robusta beans account for the remaining 25% with Vietnam producing 60% of all Robusta.
When most of the coffee come from just one or two places and they experience drought or pest / disease issues, prices fluctuate upward as we've seen in the last year. With Brazil already forecasting a drop in exports by at least 5 million bags in 2025 due to lack of rainfall, I think it's safe to assume that these elevated coffee prices will be with us for some time to come and may even become permanent, as we're seeing with other commodities so don't hold your breath for lower coffee prices anytime soon. Unless...
As the old saying goes ,'the cure for high prices is high prices'. If these high prices really do end up putting a dent on consumer demand, prices may fall BUT we're talking about coffee here, the most popular drink in the world. I certainly have not stopped drinking coffee as a result of higher prices.
Case in point... cigarettes! These cancer sticks have gone up 1000% in price over the last 30 / 40 years and people keep on buying it anyways. Why? Because of addiction.
Mind you, a coffee addict cannot really be compared to a smoking addict but I'm sure you get the drift. Coffee lovers are not about to give up their favorite drink anytime soon. Not even a 1000% increase in coffee prices would make us quit our beloved cup of coffee.
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