I analyzed Solana and XYO and found their 100+ percent price rallies in 2021 were preceded by large jumps in market cap ranking -- read PART-1 of this series here.
The results are compelling enough that I want to put some effort into building a model based on these signals. But in the meantime, I decided to have a little fun and throw some bets into the wild west of cryptocurrency price predictions.
Quick-n-dirty analysis provided me with four coins that have similar coin market rank behaviors as Solana and XYO had before their rallies. Will these coins' values moon? I have absolutely no idea. I also haven't purchased any of the four -- yet.
Recap of Part-1's analysis
Part-1 of this series discussed the hypothesis that large jumps in coin market cap rank may signal near-to-mid-term bullish price movement. Solana's and XYO's market behavior provide confidence that this hypothesis has merit, however the hypothesis broke down to various degrees with other considered coins.
The following charts compare Solana's and XYO's monthly market cap rank changes (left Y-axis) and daily coin prices (right Y-axis). I'll also add Kadena as a third chart -- I ran across it while prepping for this post, and I feel it shows similar behavior.
Visual inspection of these three charts show XYO's, Solana's, and Kadena's market rank all jumped forward 100+ per month twice before their prices exploded in mid to late 2021. Each chart also shows that these massive rank changes were not appreciably reversed. In other words, the deep red dips were not followed by significant red points above the zero line.
Four coins with similar behavior
JUST, inSure DeFi, Function X, and Phantasma all recently signaled similar market cap rank changes as XYO, Solana, and Kadena did before their price moves. And brief inspections of each coin's coinmarketcap.com price data shows no price rallies yet that I'd say compare to XYO's, Solana's, and Kadena's.
JUST, inSure DeFi, Function X, and Phantasma also have market cap rankings outside the top 100 coins, which suggests to me they have room to grow.
Final thoughts
I'm excited to continue investigating my market cap rank change hypothesis. But I wanted to take a break from intensive analysis -- I'm in a good holiday spirit and cryptomarket speculation is always a fun topic to discuss with other enthusiasts, so I figured I'd write up this quick post.
That being said, I do feel the need to emphasize that 1) I do not hold any of these coins as of press time, 2) I am not endorsing or condemning these coins, and 3) this is not financial advice.
I'll update the community in a few weeks if these coins tank or explode. If you have any insight into these coins, please leave a comment below -- I had never heard of them before today and I am very curious to see why they've made their large market cap jumps.
