How did yesterday's bets perform? Would I make the same bets again, were my reads decent? Let's dive right into it!
Yesterdays bets and takes can be found here: https://www.publish0x.com/mma-betting-blog/quick-bets-for-ufc-263-adesanya-vs-vettori-2-xppmygg
Adesanya vs. Vettori:
I'm going with Vettori @3.15/+215 (5dimes) here. I think he can make it dirty, close the distance frequently, threaten takedowns, and hold him down for longer periods if he gets him down. Look no further than Adesanya's last fight against Blachowicz, even though not a great wrestler, Blachowicz took and held him down at will. Of course it was at LHW, but Vettori's frame could will give a much lighter Adesanya similar problems. Their first fight was already close, and if Vettori learned his lessons from that one, Adesanya will have a really hard time.
RECAP: The only bet from yesterday that I'm not happy with, and which I wouldn't bet again. Turned out indeed the fight was a bit different than the Blachowicz one. Vettori was not able to threaten with his standup the same way Blachowicz was, and/or Adesanya did some adjustments to his gameplan. Takedowns from Vettori would come very difficult in the process, and overall not frequent enough. When they came, Adesanya was active and got up relatively quickly creating scrambles. Very different from the Blachowicz fight, but it's hard to say that's mainly because of skill and style differences or adjustments by Adesanya. A bet that looked to be value before the fight, turned out to be rightly priced at least in hindsight.
Edwards vs. Diaz:
Edwards is a true dark horse of the division, being away for a long time getting better, while he was always top notch. His last fight against Muhammad showed glimpses into where his skill level is at now. He looks to be truly in his prime now. Meanwhile Diaz' scar tissue has scar tissue, he is old, and I don't think he has that fire anymore. Banking on a cut stoppage and betting Edwards by KO/TKO @2.00/+100 (5dimes).
RECAP: Although Diaz was badly cut, and rocked good a few times, Edwards wasn't as active and dangerous as I thought he would be. Edwards headhunted to much, instead of working the legs that presented themselves so easily and going from there...but what can you do. I still think the bet was slightly +EV in hindsight, and I would make the bet again.
Hill vs. Craig:
Hill looks to be the real deal, but his ground game is unproven. Craig could very well get blasted on the feet, but I think at some point he will be able to get this to the ground, either through actively wrestling or through some the usual LHW meme shit fuckery. Going with a small stab at Craig by submission @6.05/+505 (5dimes).
RECAP: Well well well. How THAT was not s submission, I don't know. Bad job by the Referee, making the wrong call and unfortunately costing me some well earned money in the process. Hill's arm was dangling around, Hill was gesticulating wildly to the Referee, and it should have been stopped right there and called a submission. It wasn't, but I would do this bet anytime again, it looked like huge +EV obviously at that price. A bit dumb from Hill's side to follow Craig to the guard that easily, but that's the shit you deal with at LHW and which should be priced in into the lines.
Peterson vs. Hooper:
Hooper seems like an intelligent kid, but some fighters will never be able to strike well. Although I'm sure he spend lots of time trying to hone his striking skills, it's wasted. Hooper is not really UFC caliber, or at least has no business of ever coming close to the top 15. He might be the better grappler here, emphasis on might. I'm not even sure about that. Peterson is better anywhere else, and Hooper has no reliable way of getting it to the ground either. His only hope is that Peterson follows him there at one point of the fight, or stupidly exposes his back in some kind of scramble, not being disciplined enough. At close to evens this is value for sure, and I'm taking Peterson @1.93/-108 (Pinnacle).
RECAP: Peterson was indeed better everywhere, even on the ground, and won a clear decision as expected. If he wasn't the better grappler here, he would have run into quite a few problems yesterday, so that makes it a little flaw on my side. However, the bet won, was huge value, another fade Hooper +EV gift.
Overall another loss dusted off, on to the next one.
5 year Record:
Units Bet / Units Profit / ROI
2,606.3 / 236.54 / 9%
Verified on https://www.betmma.tips/Marximus.