If you've been around for more than one cycle in crypto, you are well acquainted with the "rediscovery" phenomenon. Running around in the bull market like a crazed loon, you're bound to forget a few wallet passwords or forget the URL to a smart contract frontend.
Give it a few months. You find those old wallets and protocols again. It's a beautiful feeling to type in that seed and see your money still sitting there waiting for your return (and likely more money than you remembered, because losing wallets has the net positive effect of preventing overtrading).
My rediscoveries netted me quite a few gaming NFTs from projects I had written off. I even wrote "FUD Files" reports on some of them, half trolling and half frustrated at the price dip. (I'd like to think I've matured now since the FUD Files! We'll see 😂)
I must say, it's much easier to profit retreading old territory...
Regardless of price, I'm excited about some of those rediscovered NFTs as their corresponding teams continued to rock out in the bear market. [#BUIDL] What was speculation in 2021, frustration in 2022 and vapor in 2023 is now in alpha about to drop on web2 and web3. We're talking games like Sipher, Shrapnel, even a rebranded Evaverse. (And plenty of losers like Galaxy Fight Club and Revomon as well 🤪 — looking at you Rumble Kongs... you better deliver)
I've also found major profits in consciously revisiting old NFT projects that have been building in the bear market. It was only a few months ago that Forbes and company was trying to dunk on us — 95% of NFTs are worthless and all such ignominy — and now we see our digital assets roaring back, both in price and in utility. Except for BAYC (more on that in a future article from a former ape... tl;dr: they deserve to go to 0)
I must say, it's much easier to profit retreading old territory than trying to keep up with every new NFT release on 5,000 new chains with shillers and scammers gnashing their teeth to get at your stables. The shillers and scammers don't talk about old projects, and you can rule out the probability of a rug when you know the team sticks together in tough times. Much easier to navigate, especially if you already did your due diligence on these projects last cycle. That's your edge. With that in mind...
Let's talk about how you can rediscover profits through oldie-but-goodie projects.
I. Metrics to quantify great projects
II. A case study comparison of two similar looking old school projects... which one should you pick to make bank?
Profitability Metrics for Old School NFT Projects
1. What that money lookin like, bro?
Old school NFT projects have history. Investors can easily see a. how the team has spent its initial capital, b. whether they have attracted funding, c. what they have left in the coffers.
I'd only buy NFTs from teams that
- used that initial capital on something foxy (attractive), functional (it works) and fun (fun),
- actually have attracted funding (you can't build a project that's going to 50X on swap fees),
- have sufficient runway to accomplish their roadmap (C.R.E.A.M., bro).
2. What that community lookin like, bro?
- Discord above all (it's the most difficult to bot. I look for an online rate of at least 10% of total population.)
- All channels up to date (if they have a Twitter, they should be posting daily. If they have a Medium, they should be writing biweekly. Newsletter, monthly updates at least. No empty channels except Youtube. Every crypto project seems to start a Youtube channel then abandon it. Bro whyyy)
- Good partnerships (defined as getting whitelists for the community from other coveted projects — key word "coveted." Not kidding, this should be factored in as part of your ROI. If a project partners with artbois only looking for another way to sell their shitty iPad farts, it's a red flag that project isn't concerned with your financial well-being. Kibatsu Mecha is a prime example. Great looking project, but the owner is lazy as fuck and only "partners" with his friends to sell you overpriced shit that will just tank as soon as you buy it.)
- Trendsetters Y/N? (when the community raids, do they trend? Trending a hashtag is the only consistent way to expand a digital project to new buyers)
3. What that utility lookin like, bro?
- Third-party IP (the true power of any NFT project is community IP. An engaged holder base of 2,000 creates utility exponentially faster than a team of 20. Teams that limit their brands to first-party IP limit their growth, i.e. CloneX)
4. What that narrative lookin like, bro?
- Narrative (like it or not, narratives matter. Web3 people claim to be misfits; they're not. They just fit in different cabals. Make sure your project is in one of these metas)
Asian gangster- FPS
- Cute anthropomorphic animal (frog, bear, cat, dog)
- Rebel tech future warrior
- 5-year-old notebook drawing
- Pixel
Bonus points if it fits in more than one.
9 points. Personally, I'm not investing in an NFT unless it hits all 9. Because when I go in, I like to purchase enough so that on a 2X I can sell back enough to ROI and keep at least 2 long-term (3-6 months, not years). This usually requires a fairly significant investment, so I'm not going in on anything that doesn't meet all my criteria. If something hits 8 points, it gets the fade. There are so many projects, bro. So many. Even old school.
Case Study: KPR vs. Cyberbrokers
KPR and Cyberbrokers were both projects that launched during the 2021-2022 bull run. Though they reached vastly different levels of success back then (KPR topped out at around 0.3E, Cyberbrokers mooned to like 6E), they both hover around 0.15E at the time of writing.
Their Discord numbers are also very similar.
Let's put our metrics to the test to see which of these old school projects is more likely to moon.
1. Foxy, functional and fun: BOTH. Check out the Cyberbrokers or KPR website and you'll find a captivating UI. Alpha: The KPR experience is more gamified even though it came out later, and the game is quite addicting. However, search deep enough on Cyberbrokers and you'll find some interesting sub-projects going on.
2. Have attracted funding: KPR. KPR came into the game with funding pre-launch, so they did not need VC funding to create Ramen Wars, their current gamified experience. Cyberbrokers did not seek funding, apparently, nor do they have any as of this writing. That says to me that Cyberbrokers is targeting an experience more localized to its region (New York), and if it moons, it moons. Fine if you're in the New York art scene, not fine if you're an NFT investor looking to maintain liquidity.
3. Runway: BOTH. KPR has an uncommonly talented team that seems fiscally responsible as well. They definitely see the benefit of growing the brand long term instead of running off with the cash now. Cyberbrokers is a local experience, so they don't need much money to accomplish their roadmap.
4. Discord: BOTH. Both communities have around 10% of their Discord community "online" at any given time – sometimes slightly above, sometimes below.
5. All channels up to date: BOTH. Both projects are good about keeping up their chosen channels, which signals an active, communicative team.
6. Good partnerships: KPR. If you pay attention in the KPR Discord, you can get some whitelists and alpha on some projects with financial potential. Cyberbrokers mostly talk New York artboi shit.
7. Trendsetters: KPR. You need your Twitter tuned to web3 to see this, but KPR recently trended for "Ramen Wars" on my timeline. I haven't seen Cyberbrokers trend at all lately.
8. Third party IP: BOTH. To the limit of my understanding (I'm no lawyer), both KPR and Cyberbrokers allow community members to use the individual NFTs they purchase in commercial endeavors, with Cyberbrokers being slightly less stringent than KPR (rights holders hold no rights to the KPR brand, just the NFT)
9. Narrative: BOTH. Both rebel tech future warriors.
Winner, 9-6: KPR
The fact KPR has all cylinders firing is playing out in the price action over the past few weeks. ETH NFTs have been mooning of late [Jan-Feb 2024], and KPR has ridden that wave from 0.08E to around 0.15E (about a 2X). Cyberbrokers has actually lost a step from around the 0.2E range falling back to ≈ 0.15E.
This blueprint has worked well for me in determining which old school NFT projects will rebound this cycle. Now is the time to get in early on these projects before the bull market really heats up.
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