Pavel Gromov, a practicing trader, tells about the current situation on the market.
Sunday was a bloody day for bitcoin. The asset fell from $9700 to $8,100, then stabilized above $8,500. The bears ' second attempt to go below $8,500 was bought out. However, it is also not possible to gain a foothold above $8800.
At the time of writing, the first cryptocurrency has been trading in the range of $8600-$8800 for more than ten hours, and the dominance index has reached 67%.
The market lost about 15% of its capitalization compared to the highs of may 8-9. Altcoins in pairs with BTC fell to lows, and EOS even updated this minimum. The market is waiting for halving.
Obviously, the rise to $10,000 after trading in the range of $8,500-$8,700 during the week and a quick return to the same range are related to the expectation of this event.
At first, the crowd bought in anticipation of halving. At the weekend, large sales in the thin market brought down stops on long positions and knocked out weak participants from the market. These are the same participants who did not buy $6000 and $8000, but bought in the region of $10,000.
I don't think there will be much reaction to the event itself. Bitcoin has returned to the range of $8500-$9000. There will be a few days of accumulation, then a slow organic growth in the direction of $9500.
The alternative is to spill over to $8200-$7800 in the next day, and then return above $8500.
The external background is favorable: Asian markets are showing growth, oil is holding above $30, and the S&P 500 has every chance to reach 3000 today.
What do the charts say?
On may 10, BTC broke through two support zones ($9200 and $8800), which were key for continued growth above $10,000. The $9200 zone was considered critical and canceled the ascending scenario.
At the moment, bitcoin on a 4-hour timeframe forms a narrowing range in the form of another triangle.
The main resistance levels are $8890 and $9267. If buyers manage to pass the resistance at $8890, an increase to $9267 is possible.
A breakdown of the $8261 zone will bring the price from the current range down to the $7785-$7942 levels.
