Introduction
Over the past year, Texas has garnered a lot of attention from its lawsuit against the 2020 general election results to Governor Greg Abbott's removal of the mask mandate back in March. The Lone Star state has also been dealing with the out-of-control illegal migration at the southern border and it has gotten bad to the point that the state decided to take things into its own hands.
For the next few years, Texas will continue to grab headlines politically as it may be a huge indicator heading into the 2022 midterms and by extension, 2024.
The Mass Exodus from Blue States
It is no secret that several people are fleeing heavy blue states such as California and New York (mainly the NYC area). As Americans relocate from one state to another, that will inevitably change the political landscape of the receiving states.
For instance, mass domestic migration will shift several billion dollars of income. According to the IRS, taxpayers fleeing blue states like Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, California, and Illinois take around $26.8 billion in gross income to red states. Among the red states, Texas was the top beneficiary with a net gain of 114,818 taxpayers and $4 billion in gross income.
In addition, there are signs that most of these domestic migrants are conservative as report by The Federalist:
The Texas Public Policy Foundation has conducted two polls of registered voters to test attitudes between natives and non-natives. Its January 2020 poll of 800 registered voters found native Texans supported President Trump over Hillary Clinton by a 7-point margin compared to transplants, who supported Trump by a 12-point margin.
From February to May 2021, TPPF partnered with polling firm WPA Intelligence, asking 3,228 Texas voters if they were born in Texas or moved here and, if they moved to Texas, from where did they move? TPPF polled 1,284 (40 percent) people who moved to Texas and 1,944 (60 percent) who were born in Texas. This ratio reflects the composition of Texas voters who are natives versus non-natives.
TPPF’s polling found there was no statistical difference in voter preferences for either former President Trump or President Joe Biden in the 2020 election among natives versus non-natives. In both samples, support for the two candidates was balanced, with neither seeing an advantage. In the 2020 election, Trump received 52 percent of the vote while Biden received 46 percent, so TPPF’s polling sample slightly overrepresented Biden supporters while underrepresenting Trump supporters.
Thanks to the net gain in residents, Texas was awarded with 2 additional congressional seats. That also means the Texas will hold slightly more weight in the electoral college for future general elections.
The Mayoral Election in McAllen
On June 6, Republican candidate Javier Villalobos defeated Democrat Veronica Vela Whitacre in a runoff election for mayor in McAllen, Texas. While the margin was by just 203 votes, when you look at the voting history of the border town, the results are actually very surprising.
McAllen is a border town. The southern border counties of Texas have very large Hispanic populations by virtue of being neighbors to Mexico. According to the Census, McAllen is overwhelmingly 85% Hispanic. Historically, Hispanics tend to vote blue and have been a reliable voterbase for the Democrats. Well... up until recently.
If you check the voting history in Hidalgo County, back in 2016, Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton led former President Donald Trump by about 40 percentage points. This can be considered as a "safe margin". However, 4 years later, the percent margin shrank by more than half. In 2020, Joe Biden led Trump by only about 17 percentage points.
Even though Hidalgo County has a large Hispanic population, Trump managed to improve his numbers in this county among other border counties substantially. In terms of raw votes, he improved by 86% whereas Biden only improved over Hillary by 7%.
Fast forward to June 6, Javier Villalobos won the mayoral election in McAllen by capturing 51% of the vote. While the margin was minuscule, Villalobos's victory is actually huge when taking the full context into account. Not long ago in October 2020, the mainstream media called Texas a "tossup" state. However, due to Trump's huge improvement with Hispanic voters, he won Texas by a larger margin than what the MSM expected. The mayoral election in McAllen has proven that the momentum has not stopped and it is swinging towards the GOP's favor heavily.
It is very likely that the border crisis contributed to the paradigm shift. Approval ratings on Biden's handling of the southern border have been negative. In addition, Kamala Harris continues to go AWOL despite being appointed as the "border czar" by Biden.
"We're going to the border... we've been to the border". ~Kamala Harris having her Joe Biden moment of saying the quiet part out loud.
Closing Thoughts
Texas was once thought to be a purple state that would eventually become highly contested battleground state. However, the demographics of blue state-to-Texas migrants, the 2020 general election, and the recent McAllen mayoral election reveal the total opposite of that happening.
Most of the people fleeing states such as California and New York tend to vote conservative as demonstrated by past polls and TPPF's overrepresentation of Biden voters for the 2020 election. On top of that, these people are bringing in billions of dollars in gross income will have massive implications on the Texan communities including tax revenue. (Maybe that additional tax revenue will be put towards border security?)
But the biggest story of all is Javier Villalobos's massive over-performance in McAllen relative to 2016 and 2020. In 4 years, a town that used to be a safe Democrat stronghold transformed into a battleground that tilts Republican. Since McAllen is a border town and 85% Hispanic, it is hypothesized that this major paradigm shift may have been as a result of Biden's negatively received border policies and Harris's absolute negligence.
This is a significant development because historically, Democrats usually win the majority of the minority vote, whether it be blacks, Hispanics, or Asians. However, Trump improved over his 2016 minority numbers. He went from 8% to 12% with blacks, 29% to 36% with Asians, and 29% to 33% with Hispanics. Conversely, Biden brought home worse numbers than Hillary.
