As I wrote in these pages over the last couple of months, we expected a big move when Bitcoin broke out of the arc it found itself trading within the first half of 2021.

Now that we have broken out of the arc, Bitcoin is moving back into price discovery as it trades at prices we have not seen since May.  Above we can see two distinct pushes on the 1D chart coming off the bottom of the arc, a bullish pattern. As we've discussed, major market moves come in waves. Usually we see three to five waves in each move so we expect to see one to three more pushes up. Bitcoin wants to test $50k. 

Drilling down to the 1H chart, we can see that Bitcoin encountered resistance at $42k, as expected. It retreated to the $37,500 range before flipping the resistance at $42k into local support at $43k and the continued its uptrend before running out of steam just above $46k and pulling back to $45k, where we see it now. 

Oscillators are cooling down from the second push. On the 1D chart, we can observe RSI at 68.29 and CCI at 125.25. 

MACD on the 1D:

MACD on the 1H:

Clearly, we are cooling down from that second push. Traders are watching for the MACD to flip and lining up their entries for the next push. 

And finally, let's lay out an Elliott Wave theory for this current move:

Moving forward, the price point to watch is going to be $51,000. We should see a test of $50k soon. At $45,000, Bitcoin is trading right in its 50EMA cloud on the 1H. Look for a bounce, similar to August 9 and August 5 for confirmation of the push to $50,000. 

Failure here at $45k sends Bitcoin back to re-test the $42k - $43k zone that we just moved out of and I see this as unlikely. A move up will help to bring retail traders back in which generates volume and order flow for our friendly market makers.

Interestingly, Bloomberg analysts are pointing to Ethereum's 2021 run as the blueprint for Bitcoin's own run to $100,000. Ethereum has certainly set the stage, gaining over 300% YTD. Bitcoin retains a shrinking dominance over the market, however, the big money transactions still tend to happen using Bitcoin as the medium. If Bitcoin catches up to Ethereum's 2021, the road to that $100,000 target becomes much clearer. 

Happy trading!