Is Dogecoin (DOGE) a Good Investment? In-depth Analysis and Near to Longer-Term Expectations
Is Dogecoin (DOGE) a Good Investment? In-depth Analysis and Near to Longer-Term Expectations

By CryptoBoomer | Investments | 15 Jan 2020


The world of cryptocurrency is pretty crazy, there’s no doubt about that. 

It’s a world where “magic internet money” reached a market valuation of $800 billion and now sits at $200 billion. It’s a world where people can buy, sell, trade and even create their own digital currencies. 

I’m not even kidding. 

You, me, or anyone can create and issue a cryptocurrency for people to buy and sell. Literally thousands of cryptos have launched with nothing but a whitepaper and an Ethereum-based token.

Did you know that there are now more than 5000 cryptocurrencies in this nascent market and more and more are popping up every day?

It’s actually crazy when you think about it. 

And get this, most of these coins don’t have a viable use case, most of them are illiquid, and crypto as a whole has yet to even come close to achieving mainstream adoption.

However, there are some outliers.

There’s Bitcoin (BTC) – a peer-to-peer, decentralized, permissionless, and censorship-resistant cryptocurrency that’s stood the test of time (10+ years), and is backed by mathematics, cryptography, and billions of dollars in mining equipment.

Then there’s Ethereum (ETH) – a so-called “altcoin” that’s also a P2P, decentralized, permissionless, and censorship-resistant cryptocurrency but with smart contract functionality and dapp building capabilities.

And then there’s a slew of other altcoins, some of which are very promising, have viable use cases, solid value propositions, or are simply popular because of memes. 

Yes, you read that last part right… some cryptos do well because of memes.

One such crypto, is Dogecoin (DOGE) – introduced as a “joke currency”, Dogecoin is famous for using the Shiba Inu dog from the "Doge" Internet meme as its logo. 

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Launched in 2013, Dogecoin is a well-established cryptocurrency that has garnered a massive community and following over the years from its popularization from memes. Nearly everyone involved in crypto knows about Dogecoin and most people have taken a liking to it.

However, just because many people like Dogecoin for its memes and funny backstory, does that make DOGE a good investment? 

Let’s find out.

For the remainder of this article, we’ll take a deep dive into Dogecoin (DOGE). We’ll look at its price action, it’s level of adoption, development, unique features, and the risks and challenges it faces. 

By the time you’re done the reading, you’ll have a fundamental understanding of whether or not Dogecoin (DOGE) is a good investment or just a joke.

Dogecoin (DOGE) - A Brief Summary & History

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As previously mentioned, Dogecoin was introduced as a “joke currency” on December 6, 2013, and can, therefore, be considered an OG cryptocurrency that has stood the test of time. 

Most cryptos from this time have essentially failed and are either dead or illiquid but Dogecoin has persevered and even prospered over the years.

This perseverance can be attributed to Dogecoin’s ability to differentiate itself from the crowd. It was launched during a time when Bitcoin climbed above $1000 for the first time and crypto was beginning to be taken seriously. 

This is why Dogecoin creators, Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer decided to create a cryptocurrency that would be about fun and not just about money. And that’s why Dogecoin has survived this long and still has a healthy market today with over $70 million in 24hr trading volume.

Dogecoin hasn’t prospered because its blockchain technology is more innovative and superior to others. In fact, Dogecoin’s blockchain is simply a fork of a now-dead crypto Luckycoin, which was a fork of Litecoin, which is a fork of Bitcoin. 

That being said, Dogecoin’s blockchain has many of the same attributes as Bitcoin and Litecoin and it works in the same way. This gives investors confidence in the coin’s underlying technology and is one of the reasons DOGE has a ~$280 million market cap today.

As for Dogecoin’s purpose, it was never intended to be “the next Bitcoin” or a “groundbreaking cryptocurrency”. Its purpose was simply to be a crypto that anyone in the world could use and have fun with. 

It has small transaction fees, it’s easy to use, and it has a large community which makes it good for tipping and experimenting with. At the same time, it’s supported on lots of exchanges, has a lot of market pairs, and is highly liquid. 

Therefore, Dogecoin has sort of become a speculative investment vehicle in addition to being a fun meme coin.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Launch & Distribution

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Now that we have a basic understanding of Dogecoin’s origin, history, and purpose, we must understand how the project was launched and distributed. 

A crypto’s launch and distribution are of vital importance when deciding whether or not it’s a good investment because it gives you an understanding of whether the coin’s supply is centralized or fairly distributed. 

In Dodgecoin’s case, there was no initial coin offering (ICO). Instead, DOGE coins were mined by early adopters and distributed on the open market. Therefore, it’s extremely difficult to judge the distribution of its supply. 

However, it’s speculated that a select number of individuals and early adopters hold a significant number of DOGE coins out of the total supply. Therefore, DOGE may be heavily influenced by “whales” and isn’t necessarily fairly distributed. 

Although, many of these early adopters and whales have likely sold off and distributed their DOGE holdings through time, which means that Dogecoin may be more fairly distributed now than it once was. 

Of course, the contrary could be true as well. 

Maybe whales have accumulated even more DOGE through time and are hiding their massive holdings by distributing them in various wallets. 

All in all, it’s extremely difficult to say how DOGE is distributed. 

What we do know however, is that Dogecoin’s blocks are mined every 60 seconds and the reward schedule is as follows:

  • Block 1 — 100,000: 0-1,000,000 dogecoins
  • Block 100,001 — 200,000: 0-500,000 dogecoins
  • Block 200,001 — 300,000: 0-250,000 dogecoins
  • Block 300,001 — 400,000: 0-125,000 dogecoins
  • Block 400,001 — 500,000: 0-62,500 dogecoins
  • Block 500,001 — 600,000: 0-31,250 dogecoins
  • Block 600,001+ — 10,000 dogecoins

At the time of writing, the total and circulating supply of Dogecoin is 122,825,575,864 DOGE and this number will continue to increase forever. 

With this knowledge in mind, Dogecoin may not be a good investment for the long term. I’d say it’s better suited for speculative trading. 

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Action & Market Structure

While Dogecoin is an inflationary currency best suited for trading and actual usage as a currency as opposed to as a long-term investment, it may still be considered a good investment according to some. 

For instance, purely technical traders who focus primarily on an asset's price action over its fundamentals may think DOGE is an excellent investment. 

To see why just check out Dogecoin’s 6-year price history in the chart below:

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The price chart above shows Dogecoin’s price history starting from December 15, 2013, to January 10, 2020, on a log scale. 

As you can see, the price of DOGE has performed quite well since its inception as it started trading at $0.000247 and is currently trading at $0.00233. 

Not only that, but DOGE has also provided traders with multiple trading opportunities with numerous ups and downs:

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As seen in the price chart above, there were at least 6 massive trading opportunities where a lot of money could have been made in the first 4 years of Dogecoin’s existence. Also, 2018 and the beginning of 2019 featured plenty of really great trading opportunities as well. 

Therefore from a trader's perspective, Dogecoin is a good coin to invest in from time to time. 

As for a longer-term investment thesis, Dogecoin would be considered a good investment if it has built and is holding above a strong level of market structure. 

Let’s see if DOGE passes the test:

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As seen from the price chart above, Dogecoin has built and is maintaining above an extremely important market structure level of around $0.0020. 

This level is extremely important because Dogecoin first met this level with resistance at the beginning of 2014, broke through it 3.5 years later then tested it as support, and has since maintained it as support throughout 2018 and 2019. 

All in all, by holding above this level, DOGE shows significant signs of strength, resilience, and growth. 

Therefore, as long as DOGE does not break this level, I would say it’s a good investment from a price analysis perspective. 

Conclusion

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While Dogecoin was created as a sort of “joke currency” to poke fun at the cryptocurrency craze, it has since garnered a massive following and is loved by many.

DOGE is traded and hodled by some of the largest whales in crypto and it’s now considered to be one of the top digital currencies on the market today. 

In reality, Dogecoin is ranked among leading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Litecoin, and XRP as the oldest and most successful cryptos around. By looking at DOGE’s 6-year price history, it’s easy to see that its macro price action is very bullish. 

That being said, Dogecoin may very well be a good investment as long as it holds above its key level of market structure and maintains a loyal community of followers.  

What do you think about Dogecoin (DOGE)? Do you think it’s a good investment? Why or why not? Let me know in the comment section below.


CryptoBoomer
CryptoBoomer

Always DYOR :)


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Be careful, these are not a financial advice :)

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